ORLANDO, Fla. – Every Tuesday, the Climate Prediction Center issues a new Global Hazards map for everywhere weather happens on our Earth, which is quite literally - everywhere!
There’s one particular section of the globe we typically watch when awaiting their latest update to roll out. That’s the tropics.
With the update that released Tuesday afternoon, the Caribbean has been highlighted for potential enhanced chances for tropical development. They’ve got a large swath of deep red, depicting a greater than 40% chance of a tropical depression or stronger forming down there.
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This lines up pretty well with what our upper atmosphere is doing and the movement of a tropical wave currently located in the eastern Tropical Atlantic. It came off the coast of Africa a couple days ago, and continues to work its way west toward the Lesser Antilles.
Right now, the satellite structure is pretty decent. It’s got a noticeable bit of counter-clockwise turning with it and the thunderstorms haven’t gone up and down much.
What matters most is what it looks like and its behavior as it enters the Caribbean over the next seven days. We’ll be spending a good bit of time tracking it before anything happens and currently the National Hurricane Center has yet to highlight anywhere it could try to form.
That’s likely because we’re still just on the outer periphery of when we most likely see it develop into a tropical depression - if it manages to hold on, that is.
Our global computer model ensembles, and their artificial intelligence counter-parts ranging from the Google Deep mind products and the European AI computer, all show a signal for a storm south of Florida in the western Caribbean.
We’re watching trends closely and it has our attention, simply because we’ve yet to see anything inside the Caribbean the entirety of 2025.
On the calendar, this is the time of year where the Caribbean becomes our most optimal area for anything tropical to try to spin up. The easterly winds that flow through the region on an annual basis tend to weaken, reducing wind shear closer to the low levels of the atmosphere.
Depending on what’s happening over the U.S., we’ll usually see decent windows of time where upper level shear, highest up in the atmosphere, is also fairly weak.
Right now for the most part, we’re getting closer to a time where both of these variables could be at their best, alongside a good pocket of available moisture.
So now we’re at the point where we simply keep watching. It’s all we can do! Please stick with News 6 for a trusted weather source to get you the facts and the info when you need it to make the choices that keep you, your loved ones, and your property safe.
[DAILY FORECAST: Lovely weather lingers in Central Florida]