ORLANDO, Fla. – “Brutal” in the title for a weather article probably kicks off a few different emotions. In this case, I hope it conveys the intensity behind the storm system we’re tracking.
Over the next few days, a dense but shallow mass of freezing high pressure is going to slide out of central and northern Canada into the heart of our country.
As it does so, surface temperatures for portions of the Dakotas, Midwest, Great Lakes, and even further south will go from about 20 degrees at the coldest portion of the morning to about 20 BELOW on average.
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Computer models suggest the central pressure of the high could be somewhere in the 1030s if not 1040s and up. The reason I mention the central pressure, just like with tropical systems during hurricane season, is they give an indication of the strength.
The greater the pressure in a high, especially from up north, means the stronger the sinking motions, and the COLDER the air.
While this high pressure system gets in motion, moving southward like lava you’d see from a volcano out there in Hawaii, it’s also going to disrupt what our jet stream is doing over North America.
The jet responds to temperature, as it is dictated by where our coldest and warmest air is positioned. As intense cold air sinks into the United States, the jet has to react.
That’s why we’re forecasting the jet dips, or troughs, down toward the border between Texas and Mexico, sparking an absolutely wicked winter storm that will produce scattered and widespread heavy snow, blizzard conditions, icing, and freezing rain.
Essentially, if this were a multiple choice question on a test, you’d want to bubble in “all of the above.”
Now if you’re a Floridian reading this, we’ll once again see our temperatures plummet but we will be spared the onslaught of the mixed winter precipitation that’ll be happening to the north of our lovely state.
Because of our precarious position on the map, it will also take a couple extra days for the coldest air to reach us.
So while our neighbors are being frozen, pummeled with ice and snow with a touch of high winds to throw a little extra flavor into the mix, we’ll be generally on the warmer side ahead of the cold front.
Conditions will rapidly go downhill from New Mexico and Texas, towards as far east as the mid-Atlantic states once our low pressure area starts spinning up.
The front itself is forecast to reach town here in Orlando by very late Sunday night into the morning hours of Monday. Rain chances are fairly slim for the time being, given the lingering cooler, stable air we’re trying to fend off.
Then Tuesday and on, we’re back into below-average temperatures with near-freezing morning lows and high temps fighting to see 60 degrees.
Climate Prediction Center keeps us in this below-average territory as well, as we rock through my birthday and the start of February.
We’ll try to pick up some rain after all this is said and done, but the totals may be pretty unimpressive. As we get closer to game time, we’ll have more dialed in rainfall chances and accumulations ready for you!