ORLANDO, Fla. – Last night on my way out the door from our News 6 studio, I noticed an alert come racing across my phone screen saying “FREEZE WARNING.”
It did in fact take me by surprise, especially since I’d just finished mentioning moments ago the coldest air with our latest front would arrive tonight, not Sunday evening.
Then it hit me – National Weather Service is going for lead time here in this case.
Lead time, whether you’ve heard the term before or not, is actually critical for the way you operate day to day when inclement weather is headed to town.
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Think of lead time like this – when you want to make plans with family or friends, what’s your usual response when an idea is pitched? “Yeah, let me know with this much time in advance so we can plan accordingly.”
That’s precisely how lead time works, and it comes in a few different forms.
There’s desired lead time, there’s actual lead time, and then there’s valid times for whatever watch, warning, or advisory may be in effect for your area.
The term desired lead time goes back to that example I mentioned above. It’s the amount of advance warning you “desire” so you can make the necessary plans or preparations ahead of a significant weather event.
Desired lead time is quite literally, what you want in order to get yourself together. This is applicable for cold if not freezing temperatures, severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, all of the above.
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Now, if we meteorologists could forecast 100% accurately 100% of the time (I know, I know), there’d be no need for an actual lead time.
As the name implies, actual lead time is what we forecasters can actually garner before an event begins to unfold.
Let’s take this freeze as a real-world example. National Weather Service issued a freeze warning around 11:45 p.m. yesterday, and it goes live at midnight tonight as we turn the calendar to Tuesday morning.
This would accrue approximately 24 hours of advance notice, or lead time.
You can calculate lead time by comparing when something went out to all of us versus what time it would take effect and when conditions actually started to happen. You won’t ever likely have to calculate lead time at all whatsoever, unless you aspire to become a forecaster or meteorologist in your career. Then it becomes even critical.
There are also rules and stipulations behind the scenes that are established to allow forecasters the window of opportunity to make the decision and issue something for a given location.
During my time in Air Force weather, we’d have listed criteria to follow for every base or air field we supported. Some folks would want 30 minutes advance notice before strong winds. Others needed an hour or two.
It’s all based around your need. Lead time is genuinely what you NEED to make sure your loved ones, friends, neighbors, property are safe when Mother Nature gets upset with us.
So, while you’ll never be talking or using the terms lead time with anyone you know, unless you work in the weather field or a field closely tied with a weather team, it’s still far more important than you realize.
In fact, I’d say after reading this article, have some internal dialogue with your family and friends. This won’t be the last cold blast, and we’ll have some severe weather in the near future, and as Floridians you and I both know hurricanes are looming on the horizon.
Decide what sort of lead times or advance notice you need before we’re hit hard by the force of Mother Nature.
It will only benefit you in doing so, I promise!