ORLANDO, Fla. – Forecast models shared on social media show snow flakes flying across Central Florida, but is it really possible?
Let’s take a look.
The No. 1 ingredient you need for snow is cold air. Check.
The second? Moisture.
A strong cold front will slice through Central Florida, delivering the coldest air in years to the region.
Rain is a possibility as the front comes through but at that point, it will be too warm to support any snowfall.
By the time it gets cold enough for snow in Central Florida, the moisture will mostly be gone.
Historically, when flakes or mixed precipitation has been observed in Central Florida, an area of low pressure develops off the Atlantic coast of Florida.
That developing system sends moisture back into the freshly-injected cold air, creating the wintry precipitation.
That’s not what’s happening here.
A couple of models briefly depicted Gulf-effect flakes, cold air going over the relatively warm waters of the Gulf. This is the same mechanism that produces lake-effect snow along the Great Lakes.
The Canadian model is the only numerical model currently suggesting flakes near the Gulf coast of Florida.
The European model had a few flakes closer to Tampa but has since dropped any signal.
For snowflakes to make it this far inland from the Gulf, the wind would almost have to be due west.
If that were the case, warmer air would also start pushing in, lowering that chance further.
Could it happen? Yes. It is it likely? Absolutely not.