It’s already cold outside, very cold for some. But the true wintry impacts have yet to unveil themselves, and likely won’t do so until Saturday.
There’s a mixed bag of impacts headed for Florida come Saturday and through Sunday and Monday.
The cold has stolen the limelight for an extended period of time and while it will be with us for the greatest duration, I don’t want to ignore the other pieces of the weather puzzle that could impact your weekend plans.
What’s driving the cold?
A massive area of low pressure is expected to rapidly develop out in front of two substantial corridors of jet stream energy.
A combo of strong winds highest up in our atmosphere, warmer-than-average water temperatures off the Gulf coast and the Atlantic coast, and moisture present across the south will drive the formation of a rather strong low pressure center.
What has piqued my interest is the “pressure gradient” we could see develop between Arctic high pressure sinking southward through the Plains and this quickly-organizing winter storm.
Quick tidbit - a gradient is the measure of change over a given distance. In this case, we’re looking at the pressure difference from the center of our high to our forming low. In between, as the pressure changes, our winds get to flowing.
The second factor here is temperature. We won’t be all that warm the next few days, but there are signs the cooler air over top of us now will start to warm up a tad. Temperature gradients cause winds as well.
Combine the two like a simple math equation and your solution is very gusty winds out of the north and west.
Here in Orlando, we may see winds trying to flirt with the 35-40 mph threshold. The Gulf Coast is indeed poised to receive tropical storm force wind gusts around 40 mph, and potentially higher than that pending what shakes out exactly.
As early as 9-11 a.m. on Saturday, we’ll see the cold front accelerate across the peninsula and then our winds will flip. Gusts will be around 15-25 mph right after the front moves to quickly turning it up a notch to 30-40 mph later into the day.
To put it into perspective, this is still the lower-to-mid end of our computer model guidance, which highlight isolated locations that may even receive 50 mph occasional wind gusts. This is precisely why we’ll be faced with such ridiculous “feels like” temps as we wake up on our Sunday.
You may also start Saturday with the pitter-patter of rain on your windows. This is where it’s still a bit difficult to dial in the forecast. Computer models all show varying pictures of showers and isolated rains as this system gets to developing.
A few suggest our northern counties will see more rain, others point towards the southern half of Florida maybe even missing our neighborhood altogether.
But nevertheless, it will be a cold rain as this storm works through. Then the winds will likely move things about on your porch or in your backyard. Alongside protecting plants and other items from the cold, you may want to bring them inside entirely to avoid a mess outside.
If winds gust even above 30-35mph, lightweight or loose lawn items will be tossed around. Especially during the overnight hours as temperatures plummet and whatever daytime warmth we managed to accrue dissipates the winds will take over.
We’ll finally see those gusty conditions calm down as we get into Monday. Feels like temps will still be below freezing, but not nearly as outlandish as when you head for church or brunch on Sunday.
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