ORLANDO, Fla. – The moment we turned our calendars to March 1, meteorological spring began for all of us.
Central Florida weather is already on top of the memo with our temperatures cranking, UV indexes rising and pretty soon, we’ll be looking at the heat index for our afternoon highs.
That’s the song and dance I fully anticipate we’ll follow for the month ahead.
Heat, and lots of it. Rain? We’re still actively searching for that.
We’re already under the classic spring time pattern.
As March rolls on, our position around the sun changes. The current location of our orbit combined with Earth’s natural tilt, results in different areas of the Northern hemisphere receiving more or less sunlight.
This causes our once very aggressive polar and arctic jet streams to start receding northward. As we get warmer in the south, cooler temps will naturally reside back to the poles and arctic regions.
So, no more substantial arctic blasts from here. We’ve turned that corner, and we won’t likely be hearing cold weather advisory or freeze warning till end of this year.
With the jet moving further north, it makes it a little more difficult to break down stubborn ridging and high pressure that may envelop our state.
Right now, after our latest cool front, high pressure is hanging out off our immediate east coast. That’s going to keep our winds flowing in from off the Atlantic, rip current risks elevated, and some fast-moving showers in your forecast for the week ahead.
You’ll know high pressure ridging is in control of your forecast just based on how it feels outside. Warm? Muggy? Hair all in a mess? Windshield fogging up in the morning or at night?
Yeah, we’re getting some nice tropical air from south and east of where our peninsula sits on the map.
We rapidly switched from fighting to see consistent 70-degree days to blasting past them altogether.
All the way through to the back end of March, our highs are going to fluctuate between low 80s and even upper 80s. Morning lows will be on the mild side.
It’s the rainfall deficit that remains the focused battle for all of us Floridians. While we have the opportunity to see some stray drops come down between now and end of the week, the overall totals will be low.
Combine this with the statewide ongoing drought and the sun already trying to position Florida underneath a magnifying glass, the dryness outside is not done building just yet.
Ridging will direct the majority if moisture and unstable air right where it usually resides this time of year: Dixie Alley and Tornado Alley.
Florida happens to sit on the outer periphery of this flow around Atlantic high pressure. So, moisture is there but nothing to fully trigger widespread much needed rains.
The month looks below average for all of us in the Florida peninsula.
This is the time where we have to carefully start inspecting the pattern to draw early conclusions about the approaching hurricane season. What the atmosphere does now off both our coastlines will play a key role in what we should anticipate in the hurricane season.