ORLANDO, Fla. – La Niña is hanging on by a thread, but soon El Niño, a potentially strong one, will take over.
Thursday, meteorologists at NOAA significantly increased the chances that El Niño develops by the middle of the summer.
Climate model guidance suggest the potential for the upcoming El Niño to be a strong one.
A .5 degree Celsius above normal sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific characterizes the onset of El Niño.
Many members of the European ensemble suite showcase the potential for a strong El Niño, characterized by sea surface temperatures 2 degrees Celsius above normal in that region.
What does this mean for Florida?
In the summer, El Niño typically reduces the number of named tropical storms.
El Niño increases stability and wind shear in the Atlantic. Both of those are detrimental to tropical development. It’s important to note significant impacts are still possible from the tropics in an El Niño year even though there are forces acting to suppress the season.
El Niño is expected to continue through fall in winter. Typically in Florida winters are wetter and stormier in an El Niño pattern.
The extra wind shear that is detrimental to tropical systems helps to fuel thunderstorms, increasing the severe weather threat in the cool months.