ORLANDO, Fla. – La Niña is fading; El Niño is about to burst on the scene. This has huge implications for weather across the globe including right here in Central Florida.
It’s looked likely El Niño would arrive by the summer of 2026, but the strength of it has been the question.
The brand new run of the European Ensembles have most of its members above 2 degrees Celsius above normal.
That is significant because the strongest ones on record would be rivaled.
To be considered El Niño, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific have to be .5 degrees Celsius above normal.
This change in temperature significantly changes the global weather patter.
There is something known as the spring prediction barrier, where there is greater-than-normal error when it comes to the predictions.
With that said, observations above and below the surface of the Pacific suggest that a strong El Niño is possible, maybe even likely.
What does this mean for Florida?
In the summer, El Niño typically reduces the number of named tropical storms.
El Niño increases stability and wind shear in the Atlantic. Both of those are detrimental to tropical development. It’s important to note significant impacts are still possible from the tropics in an El Niño year even though there are forces acting to suppress the season. Hurricane Andrew in 1992 is the perfect example of this. The season was well below normal as a whole, but Category 5 Andrew made landfall in South Florida.
El Niño is expected to continue through fall in winter. Typically in Florida, winters are wetter and stormier in an El Niño pattern.
The extra wind shear that is detrimental to tropical systems helps to fuel thunderstorms, increasing the severe weather threat in the cool months.
This would also help to prevent a major drought developing in Florida’s dry season.