ORLANDO, Fla. – You may have heard we’re heading into an El Niño by the peak of hurricane season.
You may also know that typically means a quieter season.
But that doesn’t mean you should change your preparation approach this year.
Idalia, Michael, Andrew. Some of the most devastating names in Florida hurricane history. All three had one thing in common. They formed during an El Niño season.
“El Niño is one of many factors, but not the only factor. There are probably 5 or 6 other factors that you don’t see talked about,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
While seasonal forecasts serve a purpose for certain industries, they are flawed when it comes to the person at home.
“As an individual, as a citizen, you are only interested in your location, and that’s where the seasonal forecast breaks down. It doesn’t tell you anything about you and your location,” said Rhome.
[WATCH: Here’s why NOAA forecasters are predicting a below average hurricane season]
Rhome said he’s constantly asked about the seasonal forecast, but rarely gets asked about the things that save lives.
“Think about that. That’s telling us something that we’re all distracted by the wrong thing. ‘Cause whether hurricanes come or don’t come, how you prepare is going to determine ultimately how you fare,” Rhome said.
The message is simple: the atmosphere doesn’t care about averages.
“People need to stop trying to forecast hurricanes and start trying to prepare for them,” said Rhome.
“I have never seen a seasonal forecast in my 27 years that made me change my preseason preparedness,” Rhome added.
It’s important to remember that a below-average season does not mean less impactful. In the example of Andrew in 1992, it was one of only six named storms to develop that season. It made landfall as a Category 5 hurricane in South Florida.
[WATCH: News 6 Chief Meteorologist Candace Campos recounts living through Hurricane Andrew]