Special Features

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between a well established high pressure ridge over the northwestern Atlantic and low pressure over Colombia will continue to support strong to gale-force NE to E winds, and rough to very rough seas across much of the central and southwestern Caribbean Sea through at least Sat night. Winds offshore of Colombia are expected to pulse, diminishing to 25 to 30 kt during the late morning to early afternoon hours, then increase to gale force at night. Gale force winds are forecast to begin tonight shortly before midnight.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07.5N12W to 04N18W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 00N35W to 01N26W to 01N36W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01.5N to 06N between 12W and 22W, and is ongoing off the coast of Brazil, S of 02N and W of 42W to well inland.

Gulf Of America

Broad surface ridging extends from the central Atlantic westward along 32N-33N and inland across the north Gulf states to eastern Texas. This low level pattern is combining with generally stable upper level conditions to produce generally quiet weather across the basin. Moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas to 5 ft prevail, except across the Florida Straits, where fresh E winds and seas to 6 ft are occurring.

For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend a broad ridge west-southwestward into the SE U.S. Into the weekend. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail across the Gulf, pulsing to fresh to strong each night off the northern Yucatan Peninsula.

Caribbean Sea

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean.

Strong high pressure across the central Atlantic continues to extend west-southwestward into the SE U.S. This afternoon. The resultant pressure gradient to the south is supporting fresh to strong trade winds over the eastern and central Caribbean, where seas are moderate to rough, with peak seas of 10-11 ft offshore Colombia. In the Windward Passage, winds are fresh to strong from the E-NE, with seas of 5 to 7 ft, while moderate to locally fresh E-NE winds remain in the lee of Cuba and the remainder NW Caribbean, along with moderate seas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms extends in a narrow band from NE Honduras and Nicaragua northeastward across the west coast and coastal waters of Jamaica to the SE coast of Cuba.

For the forecast, a broad ridge of high pressure will prevail N of the area into the weekend. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to near gale- force trades across the central and eastern Caribbean through Sun. Winds offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the overnight hours through Fri night. Fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba will pulse through the forecast period. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong winds will pulse at night from Thu through Sat. Elsewhere, rough to very rough seas in easterly trade wind swell over the tropical N Atlantic will continue through the weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

High pressure prevails across the subtropical and tropical Atlantic basin, centered on a 1039 mb high near 40N38W. The tail end of a stalled front along 32N between 40W and 55W weakens the ridge. Scattered showers are S of the front and north of 25N, between 40W and 60W. South of the ridge, fresh to locally strong trade winds prevail S of 22N between 45W and Cuba. E of 45W, fresh to strong N to NE winds prevail S of 28N. Rough seas to 10-11 ft prevail across much of the eastern and central Atlantic, due to long period NE swell propagating from a former gale- force low near Morocco mixing with the locally induced wind waves. Elsewhere over the SW N Atlantic waters, winds are gentle to moderate from the east. This broad easterly wind flow south of the ridge is producing seas to 8 ft as far W as 70W per recent buoy observations.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas will prevail S of 24N and E of the Bahamas through the weekend. Elsewhere, rough seas E of 65W and N of 26N will begin to subside tonight as the ridge begins to shift eastward and weaken slightly. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail S of 25N through the period, reaching strong speeds N of Hispaniola into the Windward passage. Gentle to moderate winds can be expected N of 25N.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling