Special Features

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Very large NW swell is combining with waves generated by strong NNE winds behind a cold front moving eastward through the Central Atlantic to induce very rough seas greater than 12 ft across a wide swath of waters N of 22N between 40W and 59W. Rough seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of a line from 23N73W to 19N53W to 30N38W. Peak seas near 14 ft will subside below 12 ft overnight. Another cold front extending from a storm force low north of the area has entered the forecast waters. A new set of NW swell generated from this storm will bring another round of very rough seas to the region starting on Thu and continuing through Fri. Gale force winds are expected behind the front tonight into Thursday, mainly N of 30N.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 10N14W to 04.5N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04.5N19W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 13W and 16W.

Gulf Of America

A surface trough extends over the SW Gulf with scattered moderate convection in the vicinity of the trough. Moderate to fresh winds are over the SE Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the SE Gulf and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong high pressure centered over southern Mississippi will continue to support moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas across the Straits of Florida and the southeast Gulf through tonight. Areas of fog are possible across the northern Gulf into Thu. A ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf region the remainder of the week, with a high pressure center located over the northeast Gulf Thu through Sat. This system will produce mainly a gentle to moderate wind flow with slight to moderate seas. The next cold front is slated to enter the northwest Gulf on Mon.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong winds over the south central Caribbean, with seas in the 7-9 ft range. Fresh to strong winds are also over the Windward Passage. Elsewhere W of 70W, moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft prevail. E of 70W, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2-4 ft are noted.

For the forecast, strong high pressure across the western Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and the central Caribbean through Thu night, except through Mon off Colombia. Long period northerly swell moving into the northeastern passages will gradually subside Thu. This will be followed by additional northerly swell arriving into northeastern passages late Fri into Sat before subsiding Sun.

Atlantic Ocean

See Special Features section above for information on significant swell/Gale Warning.

Aside from conditions discussed above, a cold front extends from 31N37W to 24N47W where it transitions to a weakening stationary front that continues to 20N64W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is in the vicinity of the front. Fresh to strong winds are N of 27N within 60 nm west of the front. A second cold front enters the waters near 31N66W to 30N75W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is in the vicinity of the front. Fresh to strong winds are N of 30N east of the front to 69W. Elsewhere moderate or weaker winds with moderate seas generally prevails.

For the forecast west of 55W, the tail of a weakening stationary front extending from 23N50W to north of the Puerto Rico will gradually dissipate through late today. A stronger front extending from near Bermuda to 30N75W will move into the waters north of 27N and east of 75W through early Thu. Large swell continues to impact the region east of the Bahamas. Strong winds and a new group of large reinforcing swell will follow this front, mainly over the waters east of 70W through tonight through Thu. Winds to gale force will briefly impact the area north of 30N southeast of Bermuda overnight. Another front will move into the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda Fri, before moving east of the area Sat, bringing additional reinforcing swell east of 70W. Yet another front will move off the northeast Florida coast Sat, and move east of the region through Mon.

Posted 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Al