Special Features

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Very large NW swell is combining with waves generated by near gale-force winds behind a cold front moving eastward through the Central Atlantic to inducing very rough seas across a wide swath of waters N of 22N between 42W and 66W tonight. These seas of up to 16 ft will move east through Wed, gradually decaying as the front slowly weakens. Another cold front will move S of Bermuda by Wed night, and additional swell generated by this cold front will likely bring similar conditions to the region starting on Thu and continuing through Fri.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 09N14W and extends southwestward to 04N22W. The ITCZ extends from 04N23W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 06N between 04W and 15W and from 00N to 06N between 35W and 45W.

Gulf Of America

A surface trough extends along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, producing scattered moderate convection just off the northern Yucatan. Otherwise, high pressure centered over Georgia dominates. Fresh winds are present in the SE basin, with 6 to 8 ft seas. Gentle winds and slight seas are W of 95W and N of 28N. Moderate winds prevail elsewhere, with seas of 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, strong high pressure centered over the SE Alabama will continue to support fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas across the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf through early Wed, then mainly fresh winds will prevail through Wed night. A ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf region the remainder of the week, with a high pressure center located over the NE Gulf Thu through Sat. This system will produce mainly a gentle to moderate wind flow with slight to moderate seas. Looking ahead, the next cold front is slated to enter the NW Gulf on Mon.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean as well as S of Cuba and the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range W of 70W and 4-6 ft E of 70W.

For the forecast, strong high pressure across the western Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and the central Caribbean through Thu night, except through Sun night off Colombia. Otherwise, long period northerly swell will reach the NE Caribbean and the waters just E of the Leeward Islands, including the Atlantic passages, by Wed morning and gradually subside late Thu into Fri. Additional pulses of northerly swell will reach the same region late Fri into Sat.

Atlantic Ocean

See Special Features section above for information on significant swell that will bring very rough seas to parts of the central Atlantic through Wed.

A frontal boundary extends from 31N43W to N of Puerto Rico. Strong winds are W of the front to 57W, and within 120 nm N of the front W of 57W. A broad area of moderate to fresh NE winds are elsewhere behind the front, SE of a line from 31N55W to the NW Bahamas. Then, farther NW, winds are light as a quick-moving high pressure slides over those waters. Seas are rough to very rough in the aforementioned waters, except altimeter reveled seas of 4 to 7 ft where the winds are light. A band of scattered moderate convection extends along and within 60 nm E of the cold front, and a surface trough that extends from 30N42W to 22N48W is also causing scattered moderate convection.

SE of the cold front, winds are generally moderate or less, except fresh NE winds are ongoing in the far E Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands, extending northward to offshore Morocco. Seas are 5 to 7 ft, except 8 to 10 ft between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will gradually dissipate over the SE waters tonight into Wed. Strong winds following the front and affecting the SE offshore waters E of 65W will diminish and move E of the area late tonight into early Wed. However, rough to very rough seas E of the Bahamas will gradually subside through Thu. Another cold front will reach the northern waters late on Wed, extend from 31N55W to the NW Bahamas by Thu morning and exit the region Thu night. Strong to near gale force winds, and rough to very rough seas are also expected ahead and behind the front, affecting mainly the north-central and NE offshore waters. A third cold front will move across the northern offshore waters Fri morning and exit the NE offshore waters late Sat. Rough to very rough seas will follow.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik