How climate change affects hurricane damage

Population growth large factor in rising cost of hurricane damage

Global warming, climate change, environmental shifts and temperature change are all frequently-used terms to describe the present state of the Earth.

News 6 chief meteorologist Tom Sorrells spoke with hurricane and climate experts to determine how changing temperatures affect hurricane season.

More people, more damage

Among the 10 most expensive hurricanes --  Katrina, Harvey, Sandy, Irma and Charley -- most happened in the last two decades. The only storm before the 2000s, at No. 5 on the list, is Hurricane Andrew which devastated South Florida in 1992.

However, the increasing damage costs aren't because the storms are getting stronger but because more people are in the path of the storms, according to renowned hurricane researcher Dr. Phil Klozbach.

"In recent years, the larger driver of the increase is population shift to the coast," said Klozbach, who leads the hurricane research team at Colorado State University.

While Klozbach said he agrees the globe has warmed, he said that's not the main reason we're racking up billions in damage each hurricane season.

The number of storms has not increased, Klozbach said but the number of buildings and people in harm's way have.

For example, in 1926 when a major hurricane hit Miami, only about 100,000 people lived there. More than 2.8 million live there as of 2019. If the same storm, as a Category 4 hurricane, hit today, it would cause catastrophic damage, Klozbach said.

What temperature changes mean

Bernadette Woods Placky is chief meteorologist at Climate Central in Princeton, New Jersey.

"People understand some is happening with oceans warming, flooding is worse and the coral reef is dying," Woods Placky said. "The question comes in how much is human-caused and from the science, we know if you add more carbon, it leads to these changes."
  
What kind of changes? Adding carbon warms up the atmosphere, causing lakes, streams and even the ocean to evaporate faster. More evaporation means more rain.
 
While a 1 degree change wouldn't be immediately noticeable to someone stepping outside, for the globe, a 1 degree rise in temperature means a 4 percent increase in water vapor that results in heavier rainfall.

Hurricane Harvey, for example, dropped more than 60 inches of rain on Texas in 2017, smashing the previous record of 40 inches set by Tropical Storm Amelia in 1978.

Sea levels are also rising faster, up about 8 inches since 1880, but models predict another 2 feet in the next 50 years.
 
Higher seas means daily higher tides and when hurricanes hit, rivers will rise higher than ever before.

"A couple of things we know with climate change is we do know that oceans are rising, so when you get a land-falling hurricane, it comes with higher surge farther inland, and the hallmark is high rain, If you see one landfall, there is more rain," Woods Placky said. "And hurricanes get their energy from warmer water, the water gets warmer and suddenly the storms are exploding much more so than it used to."

The takeaway: Hurricanes are currently causing more expensive damage than before mostly because of development and more people living in areas where hurricanes hit.

However, the record increase in rainfall, the rise in sea level, the higher storm surge and the rapid increase in storm strength are believed to be caused by an increase in global temperature, which is something to be aware of as people prepare for hurricane season.


About the Author

Tom Sorrells is News 6's Emmy award winning chief meteorologist. He pinpoints storms across Central Florida to keep residents safe from dangerous weather conditions.

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