Hurricanes

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 06N17W and 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W, to 05N26W 02N33W, to the Equator along 39W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 150 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 12W and 18W; within 70 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 24W and 26W; and from 06N to 08N between 28W and 32W.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the coast of South America to 10N between 50W and 60W; and from the Equator southward between 40W and 50W. This precipitation is close to an upper level NW-to-SE oriented trough.

Gulf Of Mexico

A stationary front is in Florida along 28N. A warm front extends from a 1006 mb south central Louisiana low pressure center, to close to the Florida Panhandle, toward the Florida west coast along 28N. A cold front extends from the same Louisiana 1006 mb low pressure center, to the Deep South of Texas, into NE Mexico. The front continues northwestward, in interior Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 26N northward from 90W westward. A 1001 mb low pressure center is near 22N96W. A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is from 25N102W, through the 1001 mb low pressure center, to NE Honduras. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in the satellite imagery.

Areas of haze and smoke are covering most of the western half of the Gulf of Mexico including in the coastal plains of Mexico; and in the NW Caribbean Sea including in the Gulf of Honduras. Many of the visibilities are in the MVFR category. Some of the visibilities are in the IFR category. Agricultural fires have been in Mexico and in Central America during the last few weeks.

Fresh to strong SE winds, and moderate to rough seas, have been in the NW corner of the area from Honduras northward from 80W westward, and through the Yucatan Channel, into the SE Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are in the areas that are to the south of the frontal boundaries. Slight to moderate seas are spread throughout the entire Gulf of Mexico.

A warm front extends from near Tampa, Florida to near Mobile, Alabama. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the western Gulf from 26N to 30N west of 94W. The front will continue to lift northward and inland through this afternoon, with strong thunderstorms ahead of it. A stationary front is across the Texas coastal waters and will meander there today before shifting eastward across the northern Gulf tonight through Mon, supported by a series of upper-level disturbances moving from W to E. This will maintain active weather over the northern Gulf through most of the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin, except pulsing to locally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche through Sat night. Winds will slightly weaken Sun into early next week as the pressure gradient relaxes. Meanwhile, areas of haze and smoke due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

Caribbean Sea

Fresh to strong SE winds, and moderate to rough seas, have been in the NW corner of the area from Honduras northward from 80W westward, and through the Yucatan Channel, into the SE Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong easterly winds are from 16N southward between 70W and 80W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Slight seas are in the eastern one-third of the area. Moderate seas are in much of the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Some exceptions are for slight seas between Jamaica and Cuba; in the coastal waters of Nicaragua; and within 130 nm to the south of the Dominican Republic between 70W and its border with Haiti.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 74W in Colombia and central Costa Rica. The monsoon trough continues northwestward, beyond the coastal waters/the coastal plains of Central America, toward the coastal waters of southern Mexico. Precipitation: rainshowers are from 14N southward from 75W westward.

A weak and narrow Atlantic ridge extends westward along 24N into the central Bahamas. The associated pressure gradient is supporting fresh to strong SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras and fresh to locally strong E winds in the south central Caribbean. Strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will persist through Sun, reaching near gale-force Fri evening into Sat morning and again Sat night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia through Sun night. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere through early next week. Meanwhile, smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across areas of the northwestern Caribbean, and is reducing the visibility in the Gulf of Honduras.

Atlantic Ocean

A western Atlantic Ocean stationary front passes through 31N66W, to 28N75W, to the Florida along 28N. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 90 nm to 240 nm to the southeast of the cold front from 74W eastward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 17/1200 UTC, are: 1.35 in Freeport in the Bahamas, and 0.17 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the stationary front northward between 77W and 82W.

A surface trough is along 31N44W 25N50W 23N60W 22N65W, to the western part of Puerto Rico. Precipitation: rainshowers are to the north of the surface trough.

A surface ridge is along 14N47W 23N37W 31N35W. An upper level trough is generating cyclonic wind flow and rainshowers, that are from 20N northward from 30W eastward.

Moderate seas cover nearly the entire Atlantic Ocean. An exception is for slight seas from 29N73W 27N66W from 60W westward; and roughly from 17N to 29N between 30W and 44W. Fresh NE winds are 06N to 17N between 30W and 60W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A stationary front extends from 31N67W southwestward to the NW Bahamas and westward to inland central Florida near Melbourne. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are east of the front to near 61W and north of 26N. The cold front will move slowly eastward, and shift east of 55W by Mon. Active weather is expected to continue ahead of the front through Sun. Fresh southerly winds ahead of the front will continue through Fri afternoon, then become moderate Fri night through Sat afternoon, then diminish further. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are expected through Sun night as weak high pressure extends E to W roughly along 24N-25N. A new front will sink southward into the waters offshore of Georgia and NE Florida early Mon and move southeastward and weaken through Tue.

Posted 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Mt/Ja