ORLANDO, Fla. – Researchers with the University of Central Florida have released their latest forecast detailing projections for the state’s economic future.
The report discusses the outlook of factors like housing, unemployment and industry trends across the state, though a big factor discussed in the study is personal income.
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According to the data, real personal income growth is expected to average around 3.2% through 2028 — and the state’s average growth is set to be 0.5% higher than the national rate over this same time period.
In terms of production and employment, Florida is expected to outperform the rest of the nation, though what that looks like varies from place to place.
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Thus, even with the impacts of tariffs, government fund cuts, illegal immigration crackdowns and potential property tax reform in Florida, it appears as though the state’s economy will hold out in the coming years.
“Despite the head-spinning activity of the past two months, I am still not sure if there is revolution in the air or just sound and fury,” UCF economist Sean Snaith writes.
Below is a breakdown of projected average annual wages in each Central Florida metro area:
DELTONA - DAYTONA BEACH - ORMOND BEACH
Short-Term Outlook
| METRICS | 2025 (Q1) | 2025 (Q2) | 2025 (Q3) | 2025 (Q4) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Annual Wage | $60,200 | $60,600 | $61,600 | $62,600 |
| Year-to-Year Growth (%) | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% |
Long-Term Outlook
| METRICS | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Annual Wage | $58,800 | $61,200 | $64,600 | $67,200 | $70,100 |
| Year-to-Year Growth (%) | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% |
LAKELAND - WINTER HAVEN
Short-Term Outlook
| METRICS | 2025 (Q1) | 2025 (Q2) | 2025 (Q3) | 2025 (Q4) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Annual Wage | $62,400 | $63,000 | $64,000 | $65,100 |
| Year-to-Year Growth (%) | 2.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.0% |
Long-Term Outlook
| METRICS | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Annual Wage | $61,200 | $63,600 | $67,300 | $70,100 | $73,100 |
| Year-to-Year Growth (%) | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
OCALA
Short-Term Outlook
| METRICS | 2025 (Q1) | 2025 (Q2) | 2025 (Q3) | 2025 (Q4) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Annual Wage | $58,900 | $59,400 | $60,400 | $61,400 |
| Year-to-Year Growth (%) | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% |
Long-Term Outlook
| METRICS | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Annual Wage | $57,500 | $60,000 | $63,600 | $66,400 | $69,500 |
| Year-to-Year Growth (%) | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.6% |
ORLANDO - KISSIMMEE - SANFORD
Short-Term Outlook
| METRICS | 2025 (Q1) | 2025 (Q2) | 2025 (Q3) | 2025 (Q4) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Annual Wage | $71,900 | $72,800 | $74,000 | $75,300 |
| Year-to-Year Growth (%) | 2.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% |
Long-Term Outlook
| METRICS | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Annual Wage | $70,300 | $73,500 | $77,800 | $81,000 | $84,500 |
| Year-to-Year Growth (%) | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
PALM BAY - MELBOURNE - TITUSVILLE
Short-Term Outlook
| METRICS | 2025 (Q1) | 2025 (Q2) | 2025 (Q3) | 2025 (Q4) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Annual Wage | $74,300 | $75,000 | $76,200 | $77,500 |
| Year-to-Year Growth (%) | 2.7% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% |
Long-Term Outlook
| METRICS | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Annual Wage | $72,600 | $75,800 | $80,200 | $83,400 | $86,800 |
| Year-to-Year Growth (%) | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% |
TAMPA - ST. PETERSBURG - CLEARWATER
Short-Term Outlook
| METRICS | 2025 (Q1) | 2025 (Q2) | 2025 (Q3) | 2025 (Q4) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Annual Wage | $76,300 | $77,100 | $78,300 | $79,600 |
| Year-to-Year Growth (%) | 2.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% |
Long-Term Outlook
| METRICS | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Annual Wage | $74,600 | $77,800 | $82,400 | $86,000 | $89,700 |
| Year-to-Year Growth (%) | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
THE VILLAGES
Short-Term Outlook
| METRICS | 2025 (Q1) | 2025 (Q2) | 2025 (Q3) | 2025 (Q4) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Annual Wage | $66,800 | $67,400 | $68,500 | $69,700 |
| Year-to-Year Growth (%) | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% |
Long-Term Outlook
| METRICS | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Annual Wage | $65,400 | $68,100 | $72,100 | $75,600 | $79,200 |
| Year-to-Year Growth (%) | 5.3% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% |