ORLANDO, Fla. – Crude oil prices on Friday increased $10 a barrel, leading to a 25-cent jump at the gas pumps, which you may have noticed on Monday.
That’s according to AAA.
Oil prices account for half of what you pay at the gas pump, and continued uncertainty in the Middle East means customers need to brace for higher prices in the foreseeable future.
On Monday morning, the average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gas in Florida was $3.49, but customers in the Orlando area reported seeing $3.59 a gallon at some stations.
And gas prices are likely to go up throughout the week as fighting in the Middle East continues, hampering shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
“It’s a constantly moving roller coaster ride that we’re on right now with oil prices, and we’re hoping that they stabilize sometime soon because as they keep moving higher, that drags the cost of buying and selling gasoline much higher as well,” said Mark Jenkins, a spokesperson with AAA.
Crude oil futures jumped to $116.59 a barrel on Friday morning, but fell to around $95 a barrel by midday, before falling below $90 in the afternoon. By comparison, oil prices were hovering around $71 a barrel a week ago, and were around $60 a barrel on Feb. 12.
“About half the price of what we pay at the pump is influenced by crude oil prices,” Jenkins said. “And when crude oil prices skyrocket like they are, that raises the cost of producing gasoline, and then the cost to acquire it by retailers. And when it costs more for retailers to get the gas, then they have to pass along that added cost on to their consumers.”
In fact, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the Florida attorney general’s office:
- Crude oil: 49%
- Federal/State/Local taxes: 26%
- Refining: 15%
- Marketing/distribution/profits: 10%
Those crude oil prices are based on future supply and demand, so the uncertainty becomes baked into the cost.
Right now, oil tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important shipping lanes for oil in the world, is effectively closed because of the continued conflict in Iran. Kuwait and other oil-producing countries have cut production because of that.
Americans have seen this play out before.
The last time oil prices hit $120 a barrel was in 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine and the United States levied sanctions.
Before that, oil prices hit $140 a barrel in 2008 — a few months before the economic crash that sent gas prices below $2 a gallon by the holidays.
Jenkins believes Florida could see $4 a gallon by the weekend, but it will depend on what happens in the Middle East.
“We could have another 25-cent increase on the way, and that doesn’t even take into consideration whatever increase we see in crude oil prices on Monday,” Jenkins said.
Florida’s increase over the last week is the fourth-highest in the country, at more than 60 cents since the fighting in Iran began over a week ago.
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