🌀Well, That Escalated Quickly

Just like that, the calendar turns to August and bam! Action explodes in the Atlantic. The bark is still largely worse than its bite, thankfully.

Here’s the deal. There are three areas highlighted by the National Hurricane Center, including a new tropical storm.

AREA 1:

Tropical Storm Dexter formed late Sunday night. That will continue to lift north away from all land!

The next two areas we’ll spend more time with as one is close to home and the other is going viral (for all the wrong reasons on social media).

AREA 2:

A cluster of storms north of Puerto Rico is expected to jog back to the west toward the Southeast corner of the U.S.

Some development is possible. At the very least, heavy rain will be a threat from North Florida to the Carolinas. Models tend to struggle with developing these kinds of storms, so some overachievement may be possible. I would not be surprised if by late this week or over the weekend, a tropical storm is approaching the Carolinas.

AREA 3:

This is getting a lot of play on social media. Some GFS runs have been wild for the state of Florida.

I urge caution though, as there is no context with those posts and people are just trying to get money off your clicks. I’m about to add some context.

So a tropical wave JUST rolled off of Africa.

As mentioned, the GFS and also the EURO AI are showing tropical trouble for Florida. Well, the Euro AI just whiffed big...remember last week’s newsletter?

Instead of latching onto those scary singular model runs, let’s look at the meteorology.

The GFS wants the storms to stay to the west. The EURO wants it to curve, leaving all land alone.

Why the difference?

The Euro is picking up on an upper low moving through the North Atlantic by the end of this week.

This would help to weaken the steering high pressure and allow for the storm to turn, keeping it safely out at sea.

I’ll never throw any solution out at this point, we are more than 10 days away (If the GFS is to be correct) and a lot can happen. The disturbance itself could slow down and miss its ride out, and the ridge could build back more quickly to send it closer to land. These things are impossible to know this far out.

Important to note that even most of the GFS ensemble members, which are the different initial conditions put into the ensembles to get a wide range of scenarios when a lot of data isn’t present, show this as a non-threat.

All I am saying is beware of the doom and gloom worst-case scenario model runs plastered over social media. I first always look for an escape route when it comes to these trans-Atlantic storms. One is on the table, let’s wait and see if it takes it. There’s always more to the story, and more investigating needs to be done.

I also want to see the Atlantic be able to support one of these waves. So far, models have been bullish and then the signal is lost. That also happened a lot last August, and this August is seeing a lot of stable air like last year.

I also want to point out something which was going to be the full topic of the newsletter until we had so many things pop over the weekend: the steering currents. I don’t like how high pressure continues to build along the East Coast. Models suggest more development behind the most recent African tropical wave (we’ll see), and if this pattern doesn’t break down, storms will tend to get closer to land.

See you next week or better yet, at 9:30 on News 6+ and the News 6 YouTube channel for our nightly weather hangout!

Let me know if there is anything you want to see discussed in a future newsletter entry. My email is jkegges@wkmg.com .

Don’t forget to tune into the nightly weather livestream every Monday through Friday (NOW AT 9:30 p.m.) on the News 6 YouTube channel and ClickOrlando.com. Come with questions or comments!

Catch you soon!

Jonathan

Ways to stay connected this hurricane season

You can log on and chat with me live during our live streaming weather hangout session. That is every Monday-Friday at 9:30 p.m. To comment, be signed into YouTube and subscribe to the WKMG/Clickorlando page or click here and become an insider and comment in the live chat box!

📱News 6 Weather App

Even if you are outside of Central Florida, download this app! This is the best hurricane app on the market, and it’s FREE. As soon as the National Hurricane Center names something, you’re going to know about. It’s a great way to follow the season, if you like doing that. Search WKMG in your app store and make sure you find the hurricane one.

💻YouTube

If you live in Central Florida, subscribe to the WKMG/ClickOrlando page.

If you love the weather, whether you’re in Central Florida or not, subscribe to JustWeather!

Clickorlando.com/hurricane is also a great resource no matter where you live.

📺News 6+

If you live outside of Central Florida or don’t have cable, first of all, thank you for finding the Tropics Watch newsletter! We have a lot of hurricane season-related content on demand here, and you can watch all of the newscasts LIVE as well. You can download that on your smart TV or other streaming devices.

One last thing. This is a two-way street. I/we are here for you. Any ideas? Like or hate something? Have any questions? Let me know. Shoot me an email at jkegges@wkmg.com. Find me on Facebook or X.

We’re in this together. We have families here, too. You’re going to get the same info we give to them. Thank you for your trust. We don’t take that responsibility lightly.

OK, now I’m done.

Talk to you soon!

- Jonathan