What’s going on, guys?! Meteorologist Jonathan Kegges back with you for another edition of Tropics Watch!
Arthur has come and gone and the Atlantic has gone back to sleep. The Atlantic is likely going to head into a very long slumber for at least the next several weeks.
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Could something pop off from a dying cold front? Sure, but I’m not seeing any signal that promotes significant tropical development for a while.
Take a look at the ensembles for the next 15 days.
Crickets.
Arthur did remind us of something. Impact over category. It was ‘just’ a tropical storm, but it did cause significant flooding. Always remember each storm has its own ‘personality’ and brings its own hazards no matter the designation.
Analogs came in clutch in the long range
If you watch News 6 Weather Live every Monday through Friday at the 9:30 on News 6+ or on the News 6 YouTube page we talked about this potential in late May.
This is NOT a pat bat on the back. Trust me the weather has humbled me many times, but I do want to show you how we were able to identify the potential for Arthur in the Gulf nearly a month before it formed.
Here is the episode from May 20th where we went in-depth on Arthur’s potential.
A couple of things stood out in the long range to forecast Arthur. All of this is explained in the episode by the way. I start talking about it about 14 minutes in.
First was the the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The MJO for short goes around the globe near the equator every 30-60 days. This phenomenon is an area of disturbed weather that can enhance or suppress tropical development depending upon where it is around the world.
It looked likely that in early-to-mid June the MJO would make the Gulf favorable for tropical development.
The other piece of this puzzle was analogs or looking at past weather events to predict the future. El Niño has officially arrived and has been long-advertised to play a big role this hurricane season.
In putting together my own personal seasonal hurricane forecast I looked at similar sea surface temperature anomalies across the globe in addition to how past El Niño seasons matched the upcoming one.
The years that matched closest were 2015, 1997, 1982 and 1972. All of those seasons had a below-average number of storms form for the season, but each also had a pre-July storm. 3 out of those 4 years had a storm system in the Gulf.
Using analogs aren’t perfect either, but combined with other forecasting techniques and certain modeling, confidence in a forecast increases.
I’m a big fan of long range forecasting because we literally become atmospheric detectives.
Any questions feel free to hit me at jkegges@wkmg.com
- Jonathan
Ways to stay connected this hurricane season
News 6+
If you live outside of Central Florida or don’t have cable, first of all thank you for finding the Tropics Watch newsletter! You can also watch the special on June 1st at 8 p.m. by downloading the FREE News 6+ app! You can watch all of the newscasts on here as well. You can download that on your smart T.V. or other streaming devices.
News 6 Weather App
Even if you are outside of Central Florida download this app! This is the best hurricane app on the market and its FREE. As soon as the National Hurricane Center names something, you’re going to know about. It’s a great way to follow the season if you like doing that. Search WKMG in your app store and make sure you find the hurricane one.
YouTube
If you live in Central Florida subscribe to the WKMG/Clickorlando page.
If you love the weather whether you’re in Central Florida or not, subscribe to JustWeather!
Clickorlando.com/hurricane is also a great resource no matter where you live.
Alright. I have rambled on enough. Just wanted to make you aware of where you can find trustworthy and in-depth weather content this season.
One last thing. This is a two-way street. I/we are here for you. Any ideas? Like or hate something? Have any questions? Let me know. Shoot me an e-mail at jkegges@wkmg.com. Find me on facebook or twitter.
We’re in this together. We have families here too. You’re going to get the same info we give to them. Thank you for your trust. We don’t take that responsibility lightly.