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El Niño has officially arrived. Here’s what it means for Florida

Expected to rival strongest on record later in 2026

El Nino

ORLANDO, Fla. – It’s official. The much-anticipated El Niño has arrived, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Climate models have long suggested that later this year, El Niño could rival, if not exceed, some of the strongest in recorded history.

In the modern era, since 1950, the strongest El Niño reached 2.5 degrees Celsius above normal.

Top 3 El Niño

That anomaly comes from recording the sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific.

The arrival of El Niño will impact the weather globally through at least the start of 2027.

What it means for Florida

Hurricane season 2026

In an El Niño year, typically, the Atlantic hurricane season is quieter with fewer named storms.

I use the work NORMALLY strong here, because 2023 remains a prevalent outlier. However, when we see El Nino conditions observed in the Pacific, NORMALLY the Atlantic hurricane season is far more tame with a lot more systems recurving away from land due to weakened Bermuda high pressure. 2023 broke those rules and then some. (Copyright 2025 by WKMG ClickOrlando - All rights reserved.)

El Niño increases wind shear and stability in the Atlantic basin making conditions more hostile for tropical development.

Winter 2026/2027

The clearer signal comes during the cool season, as above-normal rainfall typically arrives during an El Niño.

The opposite influence occurs during El Nino conditions with a much more southern biased jet stream driving moisture and strong storms typically into our area, and across the south (Copyright 2025 by WKMG ClickOrlando - All rights reserved.)

During El Niño, the subtropical jet stream is much more active. This usually sends Pacific and Gulf moisture routinely into Florida.

That would mean more clouds and rain during the typically dry season in Florida.

This pattern would likely prevent a widespread drought from forming next season.

The chance for severe weather also increases during the cool months in Florida.