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Here are 3 possible scenarios as Dorian treks toward Florida

Storm could dissipate or become Category 1 hurricane

Tropical Storm Dorian as of 5 p.m. on Tuesday, Aug. 27.

ORLANDO, Fla. – Florida remains in the direct path of Tropical Storm Dorianbut it's unclear exactly how the storm will impact the Sunshine State.

The latest track for Dorian shifts the system farther north, with a projected landfall forecast in Melbourne by Sunday at 2 p.m., according to News 6 chief meteorologist Tom Sorrells.

As of Tuesday afternoon, Dorian was about 80 miles west of Dominica and was moving west-northwest at 13 mph. Dorian is packing sustained winds of 50 mph.

As Dorian treks toward Florida, there are three main scenarios that could take place, according to News 6 meteorologist Candace Campos.

No. 1: Dorian dissipates over Caribbean

As Dorian tracks northwest into the Caribbean, it will be greeted with plenty of obstacles, the first being drier air surrounding the storm.

"This helps to hinder significant development right off the bat," Campos said.

The second obstacle could be stronger wind shear.

"This increase in upper-level flow and shear within the next few days could help rip apart the system," Campos said.

The last obstacle ahead for Dorian, is a possible run-in with land.

"The island chain is covered with steep and rugged terrain, with some mountains reaching 10,000 feet," she said. "Any interaction with these type of land masses could spell trouble for Dorian."

No. 2: Weak tropical storm tracks near Florida's east coast

There is a chance that wind shear and rough terrain will weaken the storm, but not completely kill its chances of survival.

Campos said this is especially true if Dorian threads the needle between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, a small strait between the two islands called the Mona Passage.

In this case, Dorian would remain a weak tropical storm with winds greater than 35 mph.

"The biggest impact to Florida would be rough surf and heavy tropical downpours by the holiday weekend," Campos said.

No. 3: Strong tropical storm

The third scenario is that Dorian maintains its tropical storm status throughout its journey in the Caribbean and then strengthens over the warm waters near Florida.

"Sea surface temperatures around the Bahamas and closer to our coast are currently running between 80-85 degrees," Campos said. "This could be the fuel Dorian needs to strengthen even further, resulting in Dorian becoming a strong tropical storm or even a weak Category 1 hurricane."

Impacts to Florida could include winds near 75 mph, tropical downpours and isolated tornadoes.

"No matter which scenario Dorian follows, being informed and prepared is always your best plan of action ahead of any storm," Campos said.

Watch News 6 and stay with ClickOrlando.com for the latest updates on the tropics. 
 


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