ORLANDO, Fla. – The first system of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is officially here.
The system, which was designated as Invest 90L over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, has been designated Potential Tropical Cyclone One by the National Hurricane Center.
As of Tuesday morning, the system was located about 65 miles southwest of Corpus Christi, Texas, with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph. It is moving northeast at 6 mph and is expected to gradually strengthen as it moves back over the warm waters of the Gulf.
According the the National Hurricane Center, it will have a small window to become Tropical Storm Arthur as early as Wednesday.
While strengthening is possible, the biggest threat is the deep moisture surging in. Widespread heavy rain and dangerous flash flooding will be possible from Texas to the central Gulf Coast.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected through Thursday from the middle and upper Texas coast into Louisiana, southern Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. Isolated areas could see up to 12 inches of rain, leading to life threatening flash flooding.
WATCHES & WARNINGS
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Sargent, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana, where tropical storm conditions could begin as early as Wednesday.
Storm surge of 2 to 4 feet is possible along portions of the Texas and Louisiana coastline, especially in areas east of where the center moves inland. Large waves, dangerous surf, and an increased risk of rip currents are also expected along the northwestern Gulf Coast.
On the east side of the system, there will also be the potential for a few tornadoes across parts of coastal Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Tuesday night.
WHAT IS A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE?
Potential Tropical Cyclone, or PTC, is a designation used by the National Hurricane Center for systems that have not yet become tropical depressions or tropical storms but are expected to do so soon.
In the past, the National Hurricane Center could not issue tropical storm or hurricane watches and warnings until a system had a well-defined circulation.
The PTC designation changed that.
Now, forecasters can issue watches and warnings ahead of time when a developing system is expected to bring tropical storm or hurricane impacts to land within 48 hours.
In other words, a Potential Tropical Cyclone may not have earned an official name yet, but it can still produce dangerous weather, including flooding rain, storm surge, gusty winds, tornadoes, and rough surf.