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Tropical Depression Karen: Track, computer models, updates

Tropical Storms Jerry, Lorenzo also spin in Atlantic

ORLANDO, Fla. – Here's the latest on the active tropics, including Tropical Depression Karen, which could head toward Florida in the coming days.

  • TS Karen disorganized
  • Tropical storm warnings issued for Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands
  • Karen expected to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands

11 p.m.

The core of Tropical Depression Karen was 130 miles of south-southwest of St. Croix with sustained winds of 35 mph moving northwest at 10 mph. 

8 p.m.

Forecasters say Karen has been downgraded from a tropical storm to a depression as it churns toward Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

But the U.S. National Hurricane Center says that regardless of Karen's status or storm intensity, the system is expected to threaten those islands with heavy rains and possible flash flooding and mudslides as it draws near them Tuesday. Forecasters at the Miami center also say the rain and potential flooding from the disorganized storm system will likely continue Wednesday even after the center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Jerry is heading closer to Bermuda. It's expected to be near that island beginning late Tuesday. At 8 p.m. Monday, the core of Jerry was about 310 miles (500 kilometers) southwest of Bermuda. Jerry has top sustained winds of 65 mph (100 kph) and it's moving to the north-northwest at 6 mph (9 kph).

5 p.m.

Forecasters say Tropical Storm Jerry is churning up rough seas along Bermuda's shoreline as it approaches the island.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center says Jerry has top sustained winds near 65 mph (100 kph) and is expected to be near the island late Tuesday, bearing high winds. As of Monday afternoon, Jerry's core was about 340 miles (550 kilometers) southwest of Bermuda. The storm is moving to the north-northwest at 6 mph (9 kph).

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Karen is forecast to send heavy rains and gusty winds across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in the coming day. The Miami-based hurricane center says Karen is now about 175 miles (285 kilometers) south of San Juan, Puerto Rico, and moving to the north-northwest at 13 mph (20 kph).

Meanwhile, in the far eastern Atlantic, newly formed Tropical Storm Lorenzo has begun strengthening south of the Cabo Verde Islands. That storm has top winds of 45 mph (75 kph) and those on the Cabo Verde Islands are asked to monitor the progress of the storm, which is moving west at 16 mph (26 kph). The hurricane center says Lorenzo formed hours earlier Monday.

2 p.m.

Tropical Storm Karen is barely hanging on as a tropical cyclone as its travels north-northwest at 12 mph, about 155 miles south of St. Croix.

Karen has sustained winds of 40 mph.

Computer models continue to disagree whether Karen will hold together. The storm's path is also undetermined, with some models showing Karen heading toward Florida in the coming days.

Tropical storms Jerry and Lorenzo continue to spin in the Atlantic, but neither are currently a threat to land.

The next three named storms will be called Melissa, Nestor and Olga.

Hurricane season runs through November.

TS Karen track.

11 a.m.

Tropical Storm Karen was about 195 miles south of St. Croix, packing 40 mph winds as it travels north-northwest at 12 mph.

Little overall change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for, * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen.

Computer models disagree whether Karen will continue to be a storm in the coming days. Some models, however, show it eventually approaching Florida as at least a tropical storm.

TS Karen computer models.

11 a.m.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo forms off the coast of Africa.

Lorenzo is expected to strengthen into a hurricane later this week but appears to be on a path into the open Atlantic.

TS Karen.

5:50 a.m.

Tropical storm warnings have been issued for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands as Tropical Storm Karen continues to move slowly northwestward across the southeastern Caribbean Sea.

Characterizing Karen as "disorganized" early Monday, the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami says the storm is around 180 miles (290 kilometers) west of St. Vincent and around 290 miles (465 kilometers) south-southeast of St. Croix, with top sustained winds of 40 mph. It's moving northwest at 8 mph (13 kph).

A tropical storm watch is in effect for the British Virgin Islands.

Computer models disagree on Karen's path once it emerges in the Atlantic.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Jerry is 355 miles (570 kilometers) south-southwest of Bermuda with top sustained winds of 65 mph (105 kph). It's moving north-northwestward at 9 mph.

2 a.m. MONDAY

Tropical Storm Karen is slowly moving northwestward across the southeastern Caribbean Sea, while Tropical Storm Jerry moves north-northwestward over the western Atlantic Ocean.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said early Monday that Karen is expected to pass near or over Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Ken is around 160 miles (260 kilometers) west of St. Vincent and 315 miles (505 kilometers) south-southeast of St. Croix, with top sustained winds of 40 mph (65 kph). The storm is moving northwest at 9 mph (15 kph).

Meanwhile, Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda on Tuesday night. Jerry's top sustained winds are near 65 mph (105 kph) with gradual gusts. The storm is around 365 miles (590 kilometers) south-southwest of Bermuda and is moving north-northwestward at 9 mph (15 kph).

11 p.m. SUNDAY

A tropical storm watch has been issued for Bermuda because of approaching Tropical Storm Jerry.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said Sunday night that tropical storm-force winds are possible in Bermuda late Tuesday. It says Jerry's about 370 miles (590 kilometers) south-southwest of Bermuda and clocking top sustained winds of 65 mph (100 kph). It's moving to the north-northwest at 10 mph (17 kph) and expected to pass near Bermuda late Tuesday night.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Karen is forecast to approach Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, threatening heavy rains and flash floods in those islands. At 11 p.m. Sunday, Karen was about 330 miles (530 kilometers) south-southeast of St. Croix packing maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 kph).   Karen's moving to the west-northwest at 12 mph (19 kph).

8 p.m.

Tropical Storm Karen is forecast to approach Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands in coming days.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center says Karen formed Sunday and should be near those islands by Tuesday, bearing a threat of heavy rains and flash flooding.

It adds the tropical storm is now buffeting parts of the southern Windward Islands with high winds and heavy rain.

On Sunday evening, the core of the tropical storm was about 105 miles (170 kilometers) northwest of Grenada. It has top sustained winds of 40 mph (65 kph) and is moving to the west-northwest at 13 mph (20 kph).

5 p.m.

Tropical Storm Karen is continuing to spread blustery winds and flooding rains around the southern Windward Islands.

Karen formed earlier Sunday and is now about 85 miles (140 kilometers) northwest of Grenada. The National Hurricane Center said the storm had top sustained winds of 40 mph (65 kph) as of Sunday afternoon and was expected to approach Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Forecasters say the storm could bring tropical storm-force winds and heavy rains and flash flooding to those islands on its approach.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Jerry is raising the risk of tropical storm-force winds as it moves closer to Bermuda. But forecasters say it's still too early to determine what impacts Jerry may have on Bermuda. At 5 p.m. Sunday, Jerry's center was located about 405 miles (655 kilometers) south-southwest of Bermuda. Jerry has top sustained winds of 65 mph (100 kph).

2 p.m.

Tropical Storm Karen is moving into the southeastern Caribbean Sea, pushing gusty winds and heavy rains across the southern Windward Islands.

Karen became the 11th named storm of the current Atlantic hurricane season earlier Sunday. At 2 p.m. Sunday afternoon, its center was located about 60 miles (95 kilometers) north of Grenada. The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami says Karen has top sustained winds of 40 mph (65 kph) and is moving to the west-northwest at 13 mph (20 kph).

A tropical storm warning is in effect for Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. A tropical storm watch now covers the U.S. Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Forecasts say Karen will cross the eastern Caribbean between now and Monday and is expected to approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday.

The hurricane center says it expects the storm to change little in strength over the coming 48 hours.

12:10 p.m.

The 11th named storm of the hurricane season has developed in the Atlantic.

The National Hurricane Center said Tropical Storm Karen formed early Sunday near the Windward Islands.

Maximum sustained winds were near 40 mph (65 kph).

A tropical storm warning was in effect for Trinidad and Tobago, Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, suggesting tropical storm conditions are likely in the next 12 hours.

A tropical storm watch also was issued for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, meaning tropical storm conditions are possible in the next 48 hours.

By midday Sunday, Karen was moving toward the west-northwest around 13 mph (20 kph), and a northwest turn was expected Monday.

The storm was expected to approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday.