Track, models, updates: Crazy path could lead Tropical Storm Karen to Florida

Hurricane season runs through November

ORLANDO, Fla. – Here's the latest on the tropics.

Computer models continue to suggest that Tropical Storm Karen will take a westward track toward Florida, but it's too soon to know for sure.

Lorenzo is expected to become a major hurricane by Thursday, but it will stay out to sea.

  • Watch video player above to see tracks, models for all active storms
  • Karen's maximum sustained winds reach 40 mph
  • Lorenzo to become major hurricane

11 p.m.

The National Hurricane Center said Tropical Storm Karen is a barely a tropical storm. The storm has an uncertain future, according to the NHC.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Tropical Storm Karen has sustained winds of 40 mph and the storm is 445 miles north-northeast of San Juan. The storm is moving north-northeast at 15 mph.

5:20 p.m.

Forecasters do not expect Tropical Storm Karen to significantly strengthen as it continues moving away from Puerto Rico.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Wednesday evening that Karen has gotten weaker with maximum sustained winds at 40 mph. The storm is about 330 miles north-northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico and it is moving north at 14 mph.

Forecasters expect Karen to cause more rainfall and possibly flash floods in parts of Puerto Rico, but there are no watches or warnings in effect.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Lorenzo has continued strengthening and is expected to become a major hurricane Thursday. It does not currently pose any danger to land.

As of 5 p.m. EDT, Lorenzo was about 835 miles west of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands.

The storm has maximum sustained winds of 90 mph and is moving west-northwest at 18 mph.

11 a.m.

Tropical Storm Karen continues to pack maximum sustained winds of 45 mph as it travels north at 15 mph about 240 miles north-northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center of the storm.

No watches or warnings are currently associated with the storm, which remains on a strange path, possibly toward Florida.

Many models show the storm making a loop before heading directly west. It's too soon to tell, however, if the storm would remain on a path to the U.S. coast.

TS Karen track.

6 a.m.

Tropical Storm Karen, about 155 miles north-northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, is moving northwest over the Atlantic with winds of 45 mph.

Tropical storm warnings for the islands of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands have been discontinued.

"Karen will be the system to watch over the next few days," News 6 meteorologist Candace Campos said. "The reason why Floridians should monitor the progress of Karen is because models are showing a loop and then a turn to the west toward the U.S. by next week."

The next three named storms will be Melissa, Nestor and Olga.

Hurricane season runs through November.

TS Karen computer models.

5:30 a.m. WEDNESDAY

Lorenzo becomes the fifth Atlantic hurricane of the season and is expected to become a major hurricane by Thursday.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Wednesday morning that Lorenzo is located about 640 miles (1029 kilometers) west of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands. The storm is moving to the west-northwest at 17 mph (27 kph) and has top sustained winds of 80 mph (128 kph). Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Meanwhile, Jerry has become a post-tropical cyclone and was expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday morning.

And Tropical Storm Karen was located about 155 miles (249 kilometers) north northeast of San Juan early Wednesday.

TS Karen satellite image.

8 p.m. TUESDAY

Heavy rain squalls from Tropical Storm Karen are beginning to spread over parts of southeastern Puerto Rico as the system nears the island.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Tuesday evening that Karen's core is located about 45 miles (75 kilometers) east of San Juan Puerto Rico. The storm is moving to the northeast at 10 mph (16 kph) and has top sustained winds of 45 mph (75 kph). Forecasters warn the storm could produce heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides over the coming hours.

Meanwhile, high winds are expected early Wednesday in Bermuda as Tropical Storm Jerry approaches that island. Jerry is now about 250 miles (405 kilometers) west-southwest of Bermuda and has maximum winds of 50 mph (85 kph). The hurricane center say Jerry is expected to turn to the northeast in the next hours and then to the east-northeast on Wednesday while passing close to Bermuda.

Orlando-area forecast

Another nice day is on tap in Central Florida.

Skies will be generally sunny Wednesday and mostly clear at night. Highs will be in the mid- to upper 80s near the coast and the low 90s further inland, especially near I-4.

"Moisture will begin to increase, with a few showers popping up by the weekend," Campos said. "However, coverage and intensity will be low, if any do form."

It will be breezy on Sunday.

Candace Campos' pinpoint forecast.

Watch News 6 for more weather coverage.

About the Authors:

Daniel started with WKMG-TV in 2000 and became the digital content manager in 2009. When he's not working on, Daniel likes to head to the beach or find a sporting event nearby.

Candace joined the News 6 team as the weekend morning meteorologist and reporter. She comes to Central Florida from Miami.