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Tropical Tracker: Saharan dust continues to keep Atlantic quiet

Cabo Verde season could start a little early

No new development is expected over the next five days as highlighted by the National Hurricane Center.
No new development is expected over the next five days as highlighted by the National Hurricane Center.

ORLANDO, Fla. – The African wave train continues through the middle of July, but most of the Atlantic is not conducive for tropical development at this time.

Saharan dust

Saharan dust, no doubt, has been our friend so far with the higher-than-normal activity moving off Africa. Dust doesn’t completely stop tropical development, but it does help keep it at bay.

Saharan dust (brown/white) still impacting the Main Development Region of the Atlantic. The brighter the color, the the higher concentration if dust.
Saharan dust (brown/white) still impacting the Main Development Region of the Atlantic. The brighter the color, the the higher concentration if dust.

The Caribbean not only has a high concentration of dust, but it is also being dominated by sinking air, which also helps to limit development. The sinking air expands into the Gulf of Mexico as well. This means we should keep things quiet in these areas a little while longer. Storms need air to rise to develop.

No hurricanes yet

We have had six named storms to date, none of which have been hurricanes.

There have been 6 named storms to date, none of which have been hurricanes.
There have been 6 named storms to date, none of which have been hurricanes.

The average first hurricane in the Atlantic typically doesn’t occur until August 10, so this is not out of the ordinary. June and July are typically quiet months all around in the Atlantic.

Hurricane development is very quiet through June and July and typically ramps up as August begins. The peak of hurricane season occurs September 10.
Hurricane development is very quiet through June and July and typically ramps up as August begins. The peak of hurricane season occurs September 10.

The peak of hurricane season occurs closer to the middle of September.

Through the end of July

Don’t be surprised if the National Hurricane Center tags one of these disturbances for a low chance of development, but as of right now, none of them look like they will have a chance to grow up over the next week. During the last week of July, the Atlantic could become more conducive for development of these tropical waves off of Africa. Computer forecasts are hinting the Cabo Verde season starting about a week early.

Atmospheric spin continues to show more waves of low pressure moving off of Africa. The Atlantic may become a little more conducive to supporting development during the last week of July. The African wave train has been more active than normal for the time of year, but the Atlantic has not been favorable for development. The warmer the color, the more spin there is in the atmosphere.
Atmospheric spin continues to show more waves of low pressure moving off of Africa. The Atlantic may become a little more conducive to supporting development during the last week of July. The African wave train has been more active than normal for the time of year, but the Atlantic has not been favorable for development. The warmer the color, the more spin there is in the atmosphere.

The Cabo Verde season is when the Main Development Region begins to see increased activity from waves rolling off of Africa.


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