ORLANDO, Fla. – The African wave train continues through the middle of July, but most of the Atlantic is not conducive for tropical development at this time.
Saharan dust, no doubt, has been our friend so far with the higher-than-normal activity moving off Africa. Dust doesn’t completely stop tropical development, but it does help keep it at bay.
The Caribbean not only has a high concentration of dust, but it is also being dominated by sinking air, which also helps to limit development. The sinking air expands into the Gulf of Mexico as well. This means we should keep things quiet in these areas a little while longer. Storms need air to rise to develop.
No hurricanes yet
We have had six named storms to date, none of which have been hurricanes.
The average first hurricane in the Atlantic typically doesn’t occur until August 10, so this is not out of the ordinary. June and July are typically quiet months all around in the Atlantic.
The peak of hurricane season occurs closer to the middle of September.
Through the end of July
Don’t be surprised if the National Hurricane Center tags one of these disturbances for a low chance of development, but as of right now, none of them look like they will have a chance to grow up over the next week. During the last week of July, the Atlantic could become more conducive for development of these tropical waves off of Africa. Computer forecasts are hinting the Cabo Verde season starting about a week early.
The Cabo Verde season is when the Main Development Region begins to see increased activity from waves rolling off of Africa.