Track vs. computer models: Where’s Eta headed?

Tropical Storm drenches parts of Florida

Models for Eta.
Models for Eta.

ORLANDO, Fla. – Tropical Storm Eta has wreaked havoc in South Florida with flooding rains and gusty winds.

In Central Florida, Brevard County, closed schools Monday as outer bands could lash the area with drenching rains.

Everyone wants to know where Eta is headed in the coming days, but the official track and the latest computer models differ a bit on the storm’s path.

As of Monday afternoon, the official track from the National Hurricane Center no longer shows Eta becoming a hurricane as it moves southwest from the Florida Keys. The track shows Eta heading north toward Florida’s Panhandle but weakening before reaching land. The cone, however, still covers a decent portion of the Sunshine State.

Several computer models, though, suggest that Eta will travel west, deeper into the Gulf of Mexico, and away from Florida.

News 6 meteorologist Troy Bridges said the official track is based, in part, on the models, so changes to the track could be on the way.

There's a lot of uncertainty with Tropical Storm Eta but it is expected to be weaker than originally thought.
There's a lot of uncertainty with Tropical Storm Eta but it is expected to be weaker than originally thought.

The path of the storm remains very uncertain due to other weather factors, so it’s best to keep checking in for the latest.

“Some models suggest a front will absorb the system over next weekend after an area of high pressure steers it into the central Gulf," Bridges said.

Nonetheless, a rainy day is expected Monday in Central Florida.

In the video player below, check the track, models, satellite, radar and more.

Watch News 6 for more weather updates.


About the Authors:

Daniel started with WKMG-TV in 2000 and became the digital content manager in 2009. When he's not working on ClickOrlando.com, Daniel likes to head to the beach or find a sporting event nearby.

From chasing tornadoes and tracking the tropics, to forecasting ice storms and other dangerous weather, Troy Bridges has covered it all! Troy is an award-winning meteorologist who always prepares you for the day ahead on the News 6 Morning News.