NOAA slightly increases outlook ahead of peak hurricane season

Administration now forecasting 15-21 named storms

This satellite image provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows Hurricane Elsa moving through the Caribbean, over Barbados, Tuesday, July 2, 2021, at 12:00 Z (8am a.m. ET). Elsa was expected to pass near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday and to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba on Sunday. (NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES via AP) (Uncredited)

ORLANDO, Fla. – The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Wednesday issued its annual mid-season forecast ahead of the peak of hurricane season.

The administration is now calling for 15-21 named storms, with 7-10 of those storms becoming hurricanes and 3-5 becoming major hurricanes.

Mid-season outlook

Reasons for increased forecast:

  • Potential for La Nina to develop (creates a more favorable environment for storms to develop)
  • Active West African monsoon season (more robust storms moving off Africa)

The updated forecast includes the storms that have already developed. While July was mainly quiet, the season is still well ahead of schedule, seeing five named storms prior to August. One of those storms, Elsa, strengthened into a hurricane last month.

An “average” hurricane season now consists of 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes. Three of those hurricanes are forecast to become major, category 3 or stronger.

Tropical activity, specifically hurricanes, starts to pick up in August. The peak of hurricane season is Sept 10.

Hurricane development is very quiet through June and July and typically ramps up as August begins. The peak of hurricane season occurs September 10.

The National Hurricane Center on Thursday was keeping tabs on three potential systems as the tropics heat up.

To stay up to date on potential approaching storms, download the Pinpoint Weather App and Pinpoint Hurricane Tracker for free:

Pinpoint Weather App

FREE DOWNLOAD: iPhone | Android

Hurricane Tracker App

FREE DOWNLOAD: iPhone | Android


About the Author:

Jonathan Kegges joined the News 6 team in June 2019 as the Weekend Morning Meteorologist. Jonathan comes from Roanoke, Virginia where he covered three EF-3 tornadoes and deadly flooding brought on by Hurricanes Florence and Michael.