ORLANDO, Fla. – After a one-day respite, rain returns to Central Florida, thanks to tropical moisture from the south.
Rain chances stand at 60% Thursday as on-and-off as moisture streams into the Orlando area.
Expect a high of 90 in Orlando. The average high on this date is 91. The record high is 98, set in 1903.
We will see a 60% coverage of rain for the next couple of days, increasing to 70% for the weekend.
Orlando’s rain deficit in 2021 is 5.53 inches.
Pinpointing the tropics
The National Hurricane Center on Thursday continues to monitor a few systems in the tropics.
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better organized in association with a trough of low pressure that is less than 200 miles south of Jamaica.
Environmental conditions remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression or storm is expected to form by Friday.
This system is forecast to move northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea near the Cayman Islands on Thursday, near Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Friday and into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
[RELATED: Storm names for 2021 hurricane season]
Given the recent developmental trends, Tropical Storm Warnings for the Cayman Islands and Tropical Storm Watches for western Cuba could be required later Thursday.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible over portions of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands and will likely spread across Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. In addition, this system could bring dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next week. However, uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to form.
The NHC says the system has a 90% chance to develop tropical characteristics over the next two days.
Elsewhere, a broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic, about 650 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves slowly northeast over the central Atlantic.
It has an 80% chance to develop over the next five days.
And a tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic, several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by early next week.
The wave has a 30% chance to develop over the next five days.
As of now, none of the systems is expected to have a direct impact on Central Florida.
The next three named storms will be called Ida, Julian and Kate.
The peak of hurricane season is September 10.
Hurricane season runs through November.
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