Tropics Tracker: What’s to come in the Atlantic after a quiet start to October?

Development possible in the Caribbean from mid-to late October

Tropical Satellite

ORLANDO, Fla. – Knock on wood.

The Atlantic at the moment is quiet due to being under the influence of the suppressed phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Here’s the deal on the MJO and how it impacts the Atlantic hurricane season.

Last season at this time we had two active storms to start October -- Gamma and Delta -- as we entered the Greek alphabet listing for only the second time.

[RELATED: Greek Alphabet No More | Why No Q, U, X, Y, Z Names | How Storms Get Their Name]

To date, 2020 has had more named storms, but the 2021 season remains more intense. 2020 through the entire month of October generated and accumulated cyclone energy of 142.6. Through Oct. 7 this season, the ACE is already at 139.5. ACE is a metric to measure the intensity and duration of tropical systems.

Watching the Caribbean later this month

October usually kicks off Caribbean season, but large-scale features will also come back into play to make the Caribbean and Gulf favorable for development.

Velocity potential anomaly. Green represents rising motion, areas more favorable for thunderstorm development. Brown represents sinking motion, areas not as favorable for thunderstorm development. (Tropicaltidbits.com)

Green represents rising motion in the map above, areas more favorable for thunderstorm development. Brown represents sinking motion, areas not as favorable for thunderstorm development.

The forecast is for the second to third week of October. After a potential uptick in the tropical development in that period, the Atlantic may shut down (for the most part) for the season as the basin will enter a more suppressed phase again heading into the first week of November.


About the Author:

Jonathan Kegges joined the News 6 team in June 2019 as the Weekend Morning Meteorologist. Jonathan comes from Roanoke, Virginia where he covered three EF-3 tornadoes and deadly flooding brought on by Hurricanes Florence and Michael.