ORLANDO, Fla. – Let’s set the stage; we’re now into the month of March. A large majority of the winter season is now behind us and as a result, we’re starting to get a feel for what’s ahead.
Spring brings with it another large piece of weather action: severe thunderstorms and especially tornadoes.
There’s a reason the second quarter of the calendar year is called “tornado season.” Right about now, we’re starting to see transitions in our prevailing weather pattern in the large-scale. We’re not talking solely Central Florida or strictly the state of Florida either. The entire northern hemisphere is beginning to shift into a spring time pattern.
So, what does this mean for us?
We’ll likely start to see fewer cold blasts and more days of rain and storms for much of the Florida peninsula. Adding insult to injury is the above-average water just off our west coast which does play a role in the spring severe weather season.
The warmer-than-average waters will help add fuel to the flame of unstable air that is usually poised across the Deep South, Dixie Alley and the southeast U.S. The fog we’ve experienced during the heart of winter as well as the several days of very warm temperatures we faced during February are also a response to the water temperatures on either side of our beautiful Sunshine State.
The more heat there is, the more moisture there is, the better shot we have at aggravating the atmosphere and producing strong thunderstorms. This upcoming weather event is going to be a glimpse of that.
Don’t get started on our ENSO either! More on that to come.
For now, let’s get into the details surrounding Wednesday.
Our parent low pressure system will begin to show itself Monday, particularly as we get closer to sunset. As this ball of energy ejects out of the Rockies, we’ll start to see our winds shift to a more easterly direction into your Tuesday. This begins the flow of warm, moist and unstable air.
As the low pressure approaches it will start to pull northward following the jet stream that helped stir up the circulation from the jumpstart. This could help provide us with a lower risk of stronger storms moving across our viewing area.
But that nudge north could be too little too late, as our computer models are all convinced we will have the necessary ingredients for gusty winds and small hail as the front rocks through. The storm energy we could have established north of I-4 on Wednesday are actually fairly impressive.
Timing will be key for this set up also. The European model appears to bring the cold front down and across Central Florida no later than 3-5 p.m. Wednesday afternoon. The GFS is a tad bit slower. These hourly fluctuations could pay dividends to all of us in terms of how many of the active ingredients for bad weather can truly be optimized.
Nonetheless, we should be prepared for rains and potential thunderstorms anywhere from 12 p.m. to 5pm. This will come through primarily in a linear fashion, right on the leading edge of that cooler airmass running head first into the warm, humid air that’ll be situated over us.
Plan for possible strong winds, and the potential for some small hail in some of our more aggressive storms if they manage to hold together. Our greatest risk area will likely be for folks who live in Marion, Sumter, northern Lake counties, and further east into Flagler and Volusia counties. But we can’t rule out some bleeding over further south.
Anywhere from the I-4 corridor and north should plan for some sporty weather action during your Wednesday!