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Here’s why severe thunderstorms will stick around in Central Florida

Let’s break it all down

We're waiting to see if SPC elevates today's risk to a level one as well, but for now Thursday and Friday are both designated as a 1/5 risk we'll be faced with more severe storms during the late afternoon. Thursday has already been designated internally as a Weather Alert day (Copyright 2025 by WKMG ClickOrlando - All rights reserved.)

ORLANDO, Fla. – The last few days have certainly CRANKED UP the rain here in our area of Central Florida.

Tuesday saw more clusters of powerful thunderstorms producing hail and damaging winds. Thankfully, no tornado warnings have been issued despite how fast these storms are blowing up during the afternoon hours.

For now, you can see the sea breeze at work for Osceola and Brevard counties, which we'd pinpointed this past weekend for increased rain and storm impacts. This threat and the overall total rain we observe is going to start bleeding further into interior central Florida the next several days (Copyright 2025 by WKMG ClickOrlando - All rights reserved.)

It looks like as an area of low pressure gets to developing off our west coast in the Gulf, conditions are ripe to continue producing thunderstorms during our daytime hours.

Because of this, Storm Prediction Center has highlighted Central Florida both Thursday and Friday for a Level 1 risk of severe weather. Computer models and current conditions seem favorable for more organized showers and storms Wednesday afternoon, Thursday and Friday that could bring gusty winds and small hail.

We're waiting to see if SPC elevates today's risk to a level one as well, but for now Thursday and Friday are both designated as a 1/5 risk we'll be faced with more severe storms during the late afternoon. Thursday has already been designated internally as a Weather Alert day (Copyright 2025 by WKMG ClickOrlando - All rights reserved.)

We have already deemed Thursday a Weather Alert Day as a result of these trends toward a more hazardous afternoon period with storms popping across the area.

[RELATED: Weather Alert Day: Here’s what that means]

Thankfully, in terms of planning your Thursday, the action will be fairly rhythmic in nature. Mornings will be muggy and mild, before we transition to the warmest part of the day by mid-Thursday afternoon. Right as this occurs, our “cap” will break, and thunderstorms will begin brewing.

This is also the point in the day where the sea breeze activates. If you’re new to Central Florida, the sea breeze is something that regularly occurs in our area during our warmest portions of the year.

Here's a look at the mechanisms driving our daily sea breeze event. Relatively cooler waters off our coastline develop localized "higher" pressure as the surface of the land heats faster during the day. Because of this, we'll see winds flow from the shoreline further inland which creates lift and convergence, resulting in our thunderstorms. (Copyright 2025 by WKMG ClickOrlando - All rights reserved.)

Land heats faster than water, and as we experience this warming, it creates localized high and low pressure around the peninsula. Winds always blow from high to lower pressure, so once 2-3 p.m. arrives, we see a push of winds off the ocean inland towards the heart of the state.

By around 5-6 p.m., the worst is right overhead if you live closer to the attractions, Orlando International Airport or somewhere along the I-4 corridor.

On the east side of our developing, broad low pressure, we'll see a conveyor belt of tropical moisture from the south lifted across our state driving rain chances even higher during Mother's Day Weekend (Copyright 2025 by WKMG ClickOrlando - All rights reserved.)

That’s precisely the set up we’re looking at the next three days.

This weekend, an even larger rain maker could be marching its way across the state. We’re going to be watching this closely, as we are beneath an area of favorable winds high in the atmosphere to support greater rain and storm growth.

Computer models really paint a wet picture for us across Florida, as this low pressure forms and tries to push northeastward dragging with it increased moisture and instability to drive rain in (Copyright 2025 by WKMG ClickOrlando - All rights reserved.)

Depending on how far north or east this low pressure tracks, we could also find ourselves in the more conducive slot of dynamics that form stronger thunderstorms and potential tornadoes.

While the set up doesn’t look that intense, we’ll be tracking it step by step as you gear up for Mother’s Day.

With that in mind, be sure to plan some indoor festivities for mom, just to be on the safe side this Mother’s Day on Sunday.


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