Building up to this main weather event, Central Florida saw a consistent period of little to no rain allowing our drought to grow towards extreme levels for some.
April was characterized primarily by a return to 90 degree temps that STUCK AROUND, and clear skies furthering our brushfire conditions alongside the summertime heat.
That’s all changing, and changing fast. An area of low pressure remains stuck essentially over the southeast United States. We’re planted beneath its east side, driving tons of moisture and rainfall across the Florida peninsula.
One could say this is a Gulf “atmospheric river” set up, since the low itself isn’t projected to fully vacate our area for another three days give or take. So rain chances will only stay where they are, if not go UP for a lot of us during our Mother’s Day and the first day of the new week ahead.
Computer models are locked on in terms of our rainfall totals as well. Total precipitation amounts are usually fairly tricky to pinpoint until we’ve reached two to three days before a major event such as this. It’s even more difficult to calculate when we’re looking at general thunderstorms developing during the warmest parts of the day, and relaxing with the setting of the sun.
A good majority of Central Florida will see an average of 2-3 inches of rain once this is all said and done. Isolated areas of the peninsula could pile up 3-4 inches with some of our heavier thunderstorms forecast to still occur during Mother’s Day and Monday before this set up pushes away from us.
This does come with a twist as well – severe thunderstorms. While the environment is not entirely conducive for tornadic development, we have plenty of ingredients to spark strong, gusty winds within these thunderstorms as well as create some hail.
We’re tracking the greatest potential for severe thunderstorms to make an appearance being later into your Mother’s Day holiday, sometime around late afternoon towards early evening. So definitely take advantage of any outdoor festivities you may have planned for Mom before the storms really settle in.
On that note, enjoy this rain while you can too! Make sure you take this time to help your lawns and gardens at home too while the soil is still moist.
Long-range data suggests we’re about to flip back into a dry pattern for the meat and potatoes of May. Climate Prediction Center is on board with their latest rainfall outlook showing below average chances we pick up anymore big time rains mid May.