Two days into the hurricane season, and we’re already monitoring a small feature right off our immediate east coast.
National Hurricane Center at their afternoon update yesterday designated an area of interest out of a cluster of disorganized thunderstorms left behind from a decaying cold front.
In traditional fashion - posts across the web and social media are growing like a brush fire.
Is this the result of climate change? Or is this a sign of what’s coming later into the hurricane season? Let’s break that down a bit.
They’re called home-grown systems
While it is somewhat difficult to produce a named storm so incredibly close to a major shoreline, it is not impossible. This time of year, early hurricane season, it’s a lot more common than the internet may elude to.
During the month of June we have what are called home-grown systems, which are typically generated off of troughs or leftover frontal boundaries that make their way off the U.S. over open water.
Then, like a nasty infection, they’re left to fester over very warm waters.
If you’d like a bit more information on what a home-grown tropical system is, make sure you check out my article yesterday breaking down a bit of the science behind why they are characterized the way that they are.
While it’s hard to determine the exact number of tropical features to have developed in close proximity to Florida, it’s a commonplace earlier on and later into the season.
In fact, we’ve had repetitive named storms form in nearly the same spot every few years.
Groundhog day with tropical storms?
Tropical storm Arthur is a wonderful example of this. The first “iteration” of Arthur came in the year 1996, developing into an asymmetrical tropical storm late June 1996. It then continued on a north and northeasterly track scraping against the coastline of Georgia and the Carolina’s before troughing picked it up and kicked it out to sea.
In nearly the exact same spot, six years later, Tropical Storm Arthur formed again. This time, in a far more similar fashion to what we’re observing now. National Hurricane Center identified widespread showers and storms associated with a front that got stuck over Florida and the northern Bahamas which started to take on circulation, forming a low pressure center.
Finally, Hurricane Arthur developed again in about the same geographic location and went on to impact North Carolina. Sometimes the atmosphere can appreciate repetition as much as we do.
Each of these individual versions of Arthur followed the same track scheme, while the variant we observed in 2014 did strengthen to category two status. They all generally occurred around the same time - the front side of the hurricane season where close-to-home development is more anticipated.
Of note, it’s not often these seedlings that we find right off our beaches strengthen to hurricane status. Typically because of variables like land interaction, sometimes differing water temperatures, wind shear, dry air provided by the United States, they’ll stay broad and fairly spread out.
BUT, Mother Nature does enjoy breaking the rules from time to time.
Hurricane Beryl was a phenomenal example of this last season. There are currently no signals suggesting we’ll be seeing anything similar to Beryl anytime soon, but it’s also only the third day of the Atlantic hurricane season. That’s why here at News 6 your weather team will maintain a vigilant watch of the tropics and provide you with the situational awareness you need to stay safe.