ORLANDO, Fla. – Here at News 6 we have been pinpointing sometime early to mid-June for a potential tropical feature to try and perk up across our basin.
I’ve been eyeballing particularly the western Caribbean and the western Gulf.
It looks like as of Friday the 13th we’ve really started to see a more consistent and promising signal that a weak feature could spin up before crashing ashore between eastern Mexico and the southernmost periphery of Texas.
That’s the GREAT news for us here in Central Florida! If the area decides it’s going to attempt to form a tropical system, it will stay far away from us.
High pressure bringing down our rain chances Friday and through the weekend is responsible for providing us with a bit of a shield from anything trying to head our way in the short-term future. If we do see development, it’ll play almost a zero role in our weather conditions here.
But since it is hurricane season, we don’t simply glaze over areas of possible interest even if they’re not headed immediately in our direction.
The first name on our Atlantic season list is Andrea.
Andrea could bring some increased rain, wind and rough surf to the shores of southern Texas if it decides to make an appearance.
The National Hurricane Center has not yet highlighted or issued a tropical weather outlook discussing this geographic section of the Gulf, but if model trends hold, that could change before the end of this weekend.
It gets a bit more interesting from there. Do you remember the MJO? The Madden Julian Oscillation?
Long-range data has taken on a pretty different idea with the latest updates we’ve received in the last 24 hours. Initially, it appeared our MJO, a feature we monitor throughout the year but especially during hurricane season, would be hung up somewhere over the Maritimes like Indonesia, Australia, Asia.
This would have provided the entirety of the tropical Atlantic with unfavorable sinking air.
As of Friday morning, computer models seem to favor a more progressive idea, which suggests the MJO would continue to revolve around the globe closest to the equator, stimulating our environment in a way to make conditions more optimal for anything tropical to try flaring up.
Now, I want to immediately add, this is a far out into the future projection here, so naturally there’s a level of caution I want to emphasize putting 100% stock into the latest forecast runs.
The key takeaway?
If these trends continue, I hope you’ve fully taken advantage of this quiet start to our hurricane season to dial in your preparations and have a plan if something does decide it wants to target the Sunshine State.
Right now we have no threats, no glaring indications that will be changing, let alone anything in the immediate next few weeks that will come toward us.
But, if our data continues to show a pattern that could favor tropical activity, things could get a little busier over the next few weeks. This would ultimately cut down what time we’re graciously allotted now to finalize any last-minute measures at home considerably.
Stick with your News 6 weather team to always bring you the latest on the tropics, whether it be a broad look at what’s ahead or tracking the next named storm alongside you every step of the way!