Hurricanes

Gulf
Atlantic

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for subtropical development over the northwest Atlantic.

Northwestern Atlantic: A non-tropical low pressure system centered over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean about 300 miles north of Bermuda is producing storm-force winds. Although the cyclone is producing some thunderstorm activity near the center, it is embedded in a cold air mass with nearby frontal boundaries. The low is expected to move northeastward today and northward tonight, bringing the system over much colder waters and across Atlantic Canada by early Tuesday. Therefore, it is unlikely that the low will transition to a subtropical or tropical cyclone. Nevertheless, the system is expected to remain a strong non-tropical low during the next day or so, and additional information, including storm-force wind warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2023, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, low, near 0 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Posted 2 weeks ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Cangialosi

Special Features

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the basin and lower pressures in NW Colombia and Panama will support pulsing minimal gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia, through the remainder of this morning and possible again tonight. Seas are forecast to peak near 12 ft off northwest Colombia. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Sierra Leone/Liberia border near 07N11W to 02N17W. The ITCZ extends from 02N17W to 00N50W. No significant convection is evident.

Gulf Of Mexico

Recent buoy observations and scatterometer satellite passes show fresh to strong winds and rough seas over all but the far northwest Gulf, with near-gale force winds over the Bay of Campeche. The winds and seas follow a front that is currently moving through the eastern Straits of Florida and Yucatan Channel. No significant showers or thunderstorms are evident across the basin.

For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish from west to east across the Gulf today, as high pressure builds over the area behind the front. Looking ahead, expect fresh to locally strong SE to S return flow across the western Gulf on Mon and Tue, ahead of another cold front entering the northwest Gulf Wed.

Caribbean Sea

Please read the Special Features section above for more details about the Gale Warning off NW Colombia.

A cold front is moving into the Yucatan Channel, followed by fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas as noted by a ship observations off the western tip Cuba. Winds may be reaching gale force off Colombia as well with fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean. No significant showers or thunderstorms are evident.

For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the south- central Caribbean Sea, pulsing to gale force off Colombia tonight, with fresh winds elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period. Looking ahead, gales are possible again off Colombia by mid week as high pressure builds north of the region.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front continues to move eastward in the western Atlantic, extending from 31N61W to the Straits of Florida. No deep convection is noted near the frontal boundary. Fresh to near gale- force northerly winds are present behind the cold front, as depicted by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft with the highest seas near 29N75W. Fresh to strong SW winds are found ahead of the frontal boundary, mainly north of 29N and west of 55W.

The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic, supporting moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds, mainly south of 20N and 6 to 9 ft seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will stall from 29N55W to northwest Cuba tonight, then will weaken while it lifts north as a warm front through Sun ahead of another front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Sun night. The second cold front will reach from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Mon afternoon, then start to stall from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by late Tue.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen