For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2020. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
Posted 1 month, 2 weeks ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven
See the latest NWS high seas forecast under awips/wmo headers miahsfat2/fznt02 kNHC for further details on the special features listed below:
A cold front extends across the basin from Tampa bay to 90W to 95W. Gale-force winds occurring offshore tampico will end by 20/0600 UTC. Gale force northwest winds will begin offshore Veracruz at 20/0600 UTC and will last through this evening, diminishing overnight. Seas will range from 10-14 ft.
The latest ascat pass from 20/0130 UTC indicates winds near the coast of Colombia are strong to near gale. These winds are expected to increase to gale-force before 20/0600 UTC. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force around 20/1200 UTC. Seas will range from 10 to 13 ft in this area.
A cold front that currently extends from 76W to daytona beach will extend from 60W to 70W to 79W in 48 hours, at 22/0000 UTC. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of this cold front and associated low pressure expected to develop tue and tue night will lead to gale force north winds over the area north of 29N between 77W-80W beginning Tuesday evening around 22/0000 UTC.
Large northerly swell will continue to affect the Virgin Islands, Leeward Islands and northeast Caribbean passages through today before subsiding tonight and early Tuesday. Large surf, dangerous rip currents and possible coastal flooding will affect the Atlantic-facing shores of these islands through today. See information from your local or national meteorological service for more specific information on beach hazards in your area.
The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 09W to 16W. The ITCZ continues from 16W to 28W to 37W to 46W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-04N between 15W-23W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere from 03S-05N between 05W-35W.
A gale warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf of Mexico south of 24N and west of 95W. See the section above for details. A cold front extends across the basin from Tampa bay to 90W to 95W. Isolated showers are along and behind the front from 20N-25N between 90W-98W. Ascat data depicts strong north winds north of the front.
The cold front over the Gulf will move southeast of the basin late this afternoon. Strong northerly winds in the wake of the front will continue across the Gulf today. Gale force winds developing offshore Veracruz will continue through this evening. Winds and seas will diminish tue and tue night as high pressure builds over the area. The high pressure will move eastward wed and wed night setting up strong southerly return flow over the northwest Gulf. These winds will diminish as they shift eastward to the north-central Gulf on thu, then redevelop over the northeast Gulf thu night into fri as a cold front moves across the western and central Gulf. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow in behind this front.
Gale-force winds are pulsing over the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Also, large northerly swell currently affecting the northeast Caribbean passages will continue through today. See the special features section above for details.
A stationary front extends across the far northeast portion of the basin from 60W to Puerto Rico near 67W. Isolated showers are noted across portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the waters south of Hispaniola and east of Jamaica. The latest ascat data depicts strong tradewinds over the central Caribbean from 10.5N-18N between 69W-78W, with fresh trades elsewhere from from 10N-19N between 60W-80W. Low-topped scattered showers are noted across the far west Caribbean waters from 16N-20N west of 80W.
Winds to gale force will continue along the coast of Colombia through 1200 UTC this morning. Thereafter, the pressure gradient responsible for the high winds will slacken, allowing winds to diminish to strong levels into mid-week. Elsewhere, high pressure building southwestward toward the Caribbean will result in strong northeast to east winds over much of the central and eastern Caribbean through early this morning, before the high moves to the east and weakens. As a result, winds will diminish across most of the area. Long-period north swell will continue to create very large seas and hazardous marine conditions for the northeast Caribbean passages through today.
Refer to the sections above for details on the swell event over the central Atlantic and the gale warning over the far west Atlantic.
A cold front extends from 76W to daytona beach Florida. Scattered showers and tstorms are within 30 nm of a line from 79W to 75W to 72W. Isolated showers are elsewhere between that line and the front. Surface high pressure ridging covers the central Atlantic north of 20N between 40W-70W, anchored by a 1029 mb high near 51W. Farther east, a cold front extends from 32W to 35W to 42W to 52W, continuing as a stationary front from 52W to Puerto Rico near 67W. Scattered showers are north of 25N between 28W-37W. Ascat shows fresh to locally strong northeast or east winds over the northeast Caribbean passages and the Atlantic from 17N-22N between 43W-63W.
Large seas across the western Atlantic waters will gradually subside from west to east through today. The cold front from 76W to daytona beach will reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba this evening, then become stationary from east of Bermuda to the windward passage on tue and gradually weaken through thu. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of this cold front and associated low pressure expected to develop tue and tue night will bring strong to near gale-force northerly winds over most of the western waters north of about 26N tue through thu, with gale-force winds possible over some of those waters. Winds and seas will diminish over the area thu night through fri night.
Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Hagen
