The center of Tropical Storm Cristobal is near 17.6N 91.0W at 04/1500 UTC. Cristobal is moving ESE at 3 kt. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Scattered to numerous moderate convection prevails 08N-24N from 80W-100W. On the forecast track, the center will move over the land mass of extreme northwestern Guatemala and eastern Mexico today and tonight. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Re-intensification is expected to begin on Friday. The center is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico Friday or Friday night, over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday and Sunday night.
Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information.
Please, read the latest high seas forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Cristobal NHC forecast/advisory and public advisory at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.
Excessive Rainfall in Central America and Mexico
Tropical Depression Cristobal is part of a larger central American gyre circulation (cag). Heavy rainfall and severe flooding have been impacting parts of Central America and southern Mexico during the last several days. Additional heavy rainfall is expected through Friday night. Abundant tropical moisture in a southwesterly wind flow will continue to impact southeast Mexico and northern Central America. More heavy rain are expected in El Salvador, with additional 10 to 15 inches of rain, mainly from this afternoon through early Saturday. It is possible that Belize and Honduras may receive 3 to 6 inches of rain. It is possible that the rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Please read bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local or national meteorological service, for more details.
An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 36W and from 18N southward, is moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the wave mainly south of 10N, and it is mostly related to the interaction with the ITCZ.
An Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 57W and from 17N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers prevail in the wave environment mainly north of 10N.
The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Africa from 13W to 20W. The ITCZ extends from 20W to 34W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 39W to 51W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ between 22W-34W.
Gulf of Mexico
Please read the special features section for details about Tropical Depression Cristobal.
Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. Upper level diffluent flow is enhancing cloudiness and scattered moderate convection across the southeast Gulf waters affecting the Florida peninsula. The activity prevails east of 86W.
Tropical Depression Cristobal will move inland to 17.7N 90.5W this evening, inland to 19.0N 90.2W fri morning, strengthen to a tropical storm near 21.0N 90.3W fri evening, 22.9N 90.7W sat morning, 24.7N 90.7W sat evening, and 26.7N 90.6W sun morning. Cristobal will move inland near 30.8N 91.7W early mon. Strong winds and high seas are expected east of the storm center. Once Cristobal moves inland, moderate to fresh southerly flow will be present across most of the Gulf waters through mon night.
Please read the special features section for details about the heavy rainfall event occurring over Central America.
A part of The Monsoon Trough extends from northern Colombia along and north of 10N then across Central America. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of The Monsoon Trough south of 17N and west of 77W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds prevailing across the basin.
The central American gyre will persist over northern Central America and southern Mexico for several days, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean through sat. Strong southeast winds and building seas will continue in the Gulf of Honduras and east of Yucatan through sat evening. Winds may reach gale force near the Yucatan channel fri through sat. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the central Caribbean through sat.
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin.
Scattered moderate convection prevails across the west Atlantic west of 75W supported by a diffluent flow aloft. A western Atlantic stationary front passes through 48W to 56W to 70W with no significant convection. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin.
Abundant moisture inflow from the cag and Tropical Depression Cristobal continue to support scattered showers across portions of Florida and offshore waters north of the Bahamas. These showers will persist to early next week. High pressure north of the front will support moderate to fresh trade winds, mainly north of Hispaniola, through sat.
Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Era