Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough axis passes through the northern coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N24W. The ITCZ axis continues from 05N24W to 06N38W to the coast of far NW Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N-09N between 13W-17W, from 04N-07N between 35W- 40W, from 09N-12N between 35W-40W, and from 07N-10N between 57W- 61W.
Gulf Of Mexico
A cold front extends from along the southern Mississippi River to near Shreveport, Louisiana to near Baffin Bay, Texas. A prefrontal squall line is noted on radar from near New Orleans, Louisiana to across south-central Louisiana into the southwest Louisiana coastal waters. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 30 nm of the squall line. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over South Florida and the southeastern Gulf, extending northwest to the northeastern Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh SE return flow prevails across the basin late this afternoon, except shifting moderate northerly winds behind the cold front.
High pressure over the eastern Gulf will gradually shift eastward as a the cold front moves east-southeast the northern Gulf waters tonight. The front will stall and lift northward on Thu. A weak cold front may move into the north-central and northeast Gulf coastal waters Fri night, stalling through Sat. A strong cold front will move into the northwest Gulf waters Sun morning returning fresh to strong northerly winds across the basin behind it. The front is forecast to shift southeast of the basin Mon night.
Caribbean Sea
Scattered moderate convection is along the coast and just offshore from Colombia to Panama northward to Honduras. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola mostly due to the now dissipated tail end of a cold front over the W Atlantic. Fresh to strong NE-E flow is noted south of Hispaniola to 15N, northwest of the coast of Colombia, and across the Windward Passage due to building high pressure north of the area and lower pressure over northern Colombia and the southwest Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. Seas are 6-8 ft across the areas of fresh to strong winds, and mainly 4-6 ft elsewhere.
The fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean will persist through Thu. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across most of the area Thu night into early next week. Looking ahead, a cold front may move southeast of the Yucatan Channel into the northwest Caribbean Mon through Mon night.
Atlantic Ocean
A cold front extends from 32N55W to a 1016 mb low pressure area near 31N56W to another low pressure area 1015 mb near 26N59W to north of the Virgin Islands near 21N64W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted north of 21N between 47W- 57W. A 1036 mb high is centered well north of the area southeast of Nova Scotia near 44N59W. This high extends a ridge southwestward to across the Florida Peninsula. Fresh to strong winds are noted west of the front to 65W due to a tight pressure gradient between the ridging and low pressure areas along the front. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere under the ridge and behind the front. Seas are 8-13 ft across the area of fresh to strong winds, and 6-10 ft elsewhere west of the front, except 3 ft or less west of the Bahamas. A 1034 mb high is centered over the Azores near 38N31W. This high and attendant ridging dominates the remainder of the waters north of the ITCZ and east of the cold front.
The cold front over the central Atlantic will shift slowly eastward this evening, then become stationary by Thu. The fresh to strong winds just west of the front will prevail through Thu. The large seas in northerly swell behind the front is expected to continue to impact the Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages through Fri. The stalled out front will linger into the weekend, becoming a remnant trough. A weak backdoor cold front may drop south of 31N late Sat night into Sun, stalling and dissipating along 27N by Sun evening. A stronger cold front will move into the waters off the southeast U.S. Coast Mon through early next week.
Posted 1 day, 1 hour ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky
