Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2022. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

Posted 3 days ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven

Tropics Watch Satellite

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African continent, entering the Atlantic Ocean through the coastal border of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 11N15W to 11N16W. The ITCZ continues from 11N16W to 02N34W to 04N41W, then resumes west of a surface trough near 05N44W to near 05N52W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 12N between 20W and 44W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A 1021 mb high is centered near 28N88W, with a surface ridge extending across the northern Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from 23N92W to the Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds prevail across most the of the basin. Seas are generally 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, the high pressure across the northern Gulf will shift slowly ESE across the basin through Sun, supporting tranquil conditions for the next few days. A weak cold front is expected to briefly enter the NW Gulf late Mon then lift northward out of the basin Tue. The next front is expected to enter the NW Gulf late Wed.

Caribbean Sea

Fresh to strong winds prevail across the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the south central Caribbean and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure northwest of the area will maintain moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the Caribbean into next week, with fresh winds pulsing to strong at night off Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela, as well as south of Hispaniola. NE winds will also pulse to strong each night through the Windward Passage through Sat night. Moderate NE to E swell over the tropical N Atlantic is expected to continue for the next several days. Active weather will continue across the far western Caribbean through Sun.

Atlantic Ocean

A 1010 mb low in the western Atlantic is analyzed near 31N60W with an attendant surface trough extending to 25N63W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection and fresh to strong S to SE winds are noted within 240 nm east of the trough. Moderate winds are within 180 nm west of the trough. A tight pressure gradient south of the Azores high is supporting fresh to strong winds north of 13N and east of 35W. Seas over this area are in the 8-11 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, are elsewhere north of 20N and east of 55W. Elsewhere north of 20N and west of 55W, light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail. South of 20N, moderate to fresh winds and seas of 7-9 ft prevail.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico and eastern U.S. Will slowly build south and east into the area through early next week, supporting generally tranquil conditions over the SW N Atlantic for the next several days. Moderate NE to E swell over the Atlantic waters E of 70W is expected for the next several days. Fresh southerly winds are expected across the N Florida waters Wed.

Posted 1 day, 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Al

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature