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Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Beta, located over the Texas coast, on Hurricane Teddy, located a few hundred miles south of Halifax, Nova Scotia, and on Tropical Storm Paulette, located a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores.

Showers and thunderstorms extending from the southeastern Bahamas westward through Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a cold front. This system is forecast to move little for the next day or so, then move back northward on Thursday through Saturday. While development of this system over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late this week is very unlikely, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Cuba through Wednesday and over the Florida Keys and south Florida on Thursday and Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, low, 10 percent.

Public Advisories on Paulette are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Paulette are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Blake

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

Tropical Depression Beta is centered near 28.9N 96.7W at 22/01500 UTC or 13 nm ENE of Victoria Texas moving NE at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends out 150 nm from the center in the NE semicircle. A slow motion toward the east-northeast is expected by this afternoon and tonight. An east-northeastward to northeastward motion with increasing forward speed is expected Wednesday through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will move inland over southeastern Texas through Wednesday and then over Louisiana and Mississippi Wednesday night through Friday. Little change in strength is expected today with gradual weakening anticipated through Friday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

Hurricane Teddy is centered near 39.6N 63.7W at 22/1500 UTC or 300 nm S of Halifax Nova Scotia moving NNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends outward 360 nm from the center in the northern semicircle, and 90 nm in the SW quadrant. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected by early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday, and then near or over Newfoundland by Wednesday night and east of Labrador on Thursday. Although some weakening is likely later today and Wednesday, Teddy should be a strong post-tropical cyclone when it moves near and over Nova Scotia. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and the Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

Tropical Storm Paulette is centered near 35.0N 22.3W at 22/1500 UTC or 291 nm SE of the Azores moving E at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within about 60 nm of the center in all quadrants. An east to east-northeast motion is expected through Wednesday. A slowing of forward motion along with turns to the southeast then south are expected Wednesday night through Thursday. A southwestward motion is forecast to begin by late this week. Slow weakening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to become a remnant low within the next day or so. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIATCPAT1.shtml and the Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is located along 21W S of 16N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-07N between 20W-24W.

A weak tropical wave extends along 33W S of 20N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring with this wave.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 12N16W to 06N27W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the monsoon trough.

Gulf Of Mexico

Please see the Special Features section above for further details on Tropical Depression Beta inland over Texas.

As of 22/1500 UTC. A cold front has now stalled over the eastern and central Gulf from 22N80W to 30N94W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front. North of the front over the NE Gulf, strong NE winds prevail. These winds will gradually decrease to fresh later today and tonight. Gentle winds prevail over the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico south of the front. In the far western Gulf, gentle winds prevail south of 25.5N. Impacts from Beta will remain confined to nearshore coastal waters of Texas and Louisiana. A stationary front extending from the north-central Gulf to western Cuba will move back northward on Thursday through Saturday. Low pressure may form along this frontal boundary in the southeast Gulf later this week.

Caribbean Sea

Scattered moderate convection is Cuba due to the stationary front. Mainly fair weather conditions prevail elsewhere across the basin under the influence of mid level high supporting dry air subsidence. Scattered moderate convection S of 11N, along the Panama and Colombia coasts, is associated with the east Pacific monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail.

Swell associated with Teddy moving away in the north Atlantic as well as generated by a cold front currently extending along 22N-23N W of 61W will impact much of the Atlantic passages beginning tonight and continuing through at least Thu night. Mainly gentle to moderate trade winds will dominate the basin through the forecast period, with the exception of moderate to fresh winds near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 31N58W to 24N64W to 22N80W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front. Strong NE winds area located to the N and W of the front, including the Bahamas. Ahead of the front, strong S winds are occurring N of 28N. A weak 1011 mb low near 14N51W is along a NE-SW surface trough that extends from 17N47W to 12N53W. Another surface trough is from 23N42W to 18N45W. A broad area of moderate, disorganized convection resides in the vicinity of these features from 11N-17N between 42W-48W.

Swell generated by Teddy and a cold front that is slowing over the southeastern waters will continue to impact the waters through at least Thu night. In the wake of the front, high pressure building into the Mid-Atlantic U.S. Will bring fresh to strong winds to areas N of the Bahamas and off the Florida coast into tonight.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Formosa

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature