BEFORE THE STORM
DURING THE STORM
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Blake
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 27W from 12N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 02N to 07N between 23W and 30W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 41W from 11N southward, and moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 37W and 42W.
Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W from 12N southward across Suriname, and moving west at 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is present from the Suriname-French Guiana coast to 10N between 51W and 57W.
A Caribbean tropical wave is near 66W from 13N southward into central Venezuela, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are found over northern Venezuela.
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast just south of Dakar, then reaches southwestward to 07N22W. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up south of the trough from 02N to 07N between 14W and 22W, and also near the Sierra Leone coast. An ITCZ extends from 04N29W to 05N39W, then from 06N42W to 06N50W. Widely scattered showers are present up to 80 nm along either side of both ITCZ segments.
The eastern end of an East Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Panama and northwest Colombia.
Gulf Of Mexico
A weak surface trough is causing widely scattered showers at the central Gulf southwest of New Orleans, Louisiana. Otherwise, a 1016 mb high over the northeastern Gulf is dominating much of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft are seen at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to E to SE winds and 2 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.
For the forecast, the modest 1016 mb high will support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin through early this week. Weak low pressure may form over the western Gulf by midweek, then slowly migrate eastward toward the eastern Gulf toward the end of the week.
Convergent trade winds are coupling with divergent winds aloft to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms near western Cuba, Jamaica and east of Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft dominate the south-central basin. Gentle to moderate easterly trades with 3 to 4 ft seas are noted at the eastern and north-central basin, and the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin.
For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate trade winds across the Caribbean through mid week, except occasional fresh pulses along the northern coast of South America and off Honduras.
A weak stationary front curves westward from well southwest of Bermuda across 30N74W to near the Georgia-Florida border. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident near this feature north of 26N between 72W and the Georgia-Florida coast. The Atlantic Ridge extends southwestward from a 1022 mb high at 30N52W to the Great Bahama Bank. Convergent southerly winds near the ridge axis are coupling with divergent flow aloft to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms across the western Atlantic north of 24N between 72W and the Georgia-Florida coast, and at the southeast Bahamas and Great Bahama Bank. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.
Other than moderate to fresh southerly winds and 4 to 5 ft seas south of Bermuda from 26N to 30N between 63W and 68W, light to gentle winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are evident north of 25N between the northwest Africa coast and Georgia-Florida coast, including the Canary Islands. To the south, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are found from 06N to 25N between 30W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to fresh NNE to NE trades with 5 to 8 ft seas exist from 10N to 25N between the central Africa coast and 30W. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal winds with 6 to 9 ft seas in mixed northerly and southerly swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.
For the forecast west of 35W, the broad Atlantic Ridge will sustain light to gentle with locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas north of 25N through midweek. Gentle to moderate trades are going to become moderate to fresh south of 25N by Tue night. Seas in this area should rise to between 5 and 7 ft by midweek.
Posted 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Chan