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Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of mexico:

Thunderstorm activity associated with a large low pressure system located more than 800 miles west-southwest of the cabo verde islands has increased and become a little better organized over the past several hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development to occur, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic. Conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development by the end of the week. * formation chance through 48 hours, high, 70 percent. * formation chance through 5 days, high, 70 percent.

Posted 53 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Stewart

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

A 1009 mb low pressure center is analyzed near 35W, along a tropical wave. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N-14N between 36W-39W. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development to occur, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days while the disturbance moves generally westward to west- northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic. Conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development by the end of the week. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please see the latest Atlantic tropical weather outlook for more information.

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave has an axis near the coast of Africa along 19W, from 20N southward, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N-13N between 18W-22W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 35W from 16N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Please see the special features section for information about the potential for tropical cyclone formation.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 53W from 21N southward, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are near the northern portions of the wave axis from 15N-22N between 59W-55W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 73W from 19N southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are near the northern portion of this wave in southern Haiti.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 88W from 19N southward, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N-20N between 86W-89W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 16W to 22W to 44W. The ITCZ continues from 44W to 52W, then continues from 54W to the coast of Venezuela near 61W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm of The Monsoon Trough between 24W-42W.

Gulf of Mexico

Surface ridging prevails over the eastern and central Gulf anchored by a 1018 mb high near 85W. A trough is in the southwest Gulf from 96W to 96W. Scattered thunderstorms are noted along the trough and the southwest Gulf, south of 23N between 91W-96W. Isolated thunderstorms are also noted near the Florida panhandle. Light to gentle winds are noted across the Gulf with moderate winds in the southwest basin. Seas range from 1-3 ft.

High pressure centered over the northeast Gulf will result in gentle to moderate winds with slight seas across much of the area this week. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected each evening for the next several nights in the eastern bay of Campeche near the Yucatan Peninsula due to local effects.

Caribbean Sea

Scattered moderate convection is noted in the southwest Caribbean, south of 14N between 79W-84W. Isolated thunderstorms are also in the northwest Caribbean. Otherwise, isolated showers are seen moving across the Lesser Antilles. Fresh to strong winds are in the south-central Caribbean with moderate to fresh winds in the central basin. Fresh winds are also observed in the windward passage and the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate trades are seen elsewhere. Seas range from 3-7 ft with upwards of 10 ft in the west-central Caribbean.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the south- central Caribbean waters this week, with near gale-force winds expected to pulse at night near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through midweek. Fresh to strong winds will pulse for the next couple nights through the windward passage. Winds and seas will increase over the tropical north Atlantic waters tue night and wed as a tropical wave crosses the region. Another tropical wave, possibly accompanied by a trough or low pressure system, could increase winds and seas over the tropical north Atlantic waters fri through sat.

An intensification of the panamanian low may cause an enhancement of moisture over the southern half of Central America late this week. As a result, heavy rain is possible late this week over portions of Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua. The rains could lead to localized flooding.

Atlantic Ocean

A trough is analyzed in the western Atlantic from 72W to 77W. Isolated thunderstorms are noted along it. Thunderstorms are pushing off the northeast Florida coast into the Atlantic, north of 29N and west of 80W. Another surface trough is analyzed from 63W to 62W with isolated thunderstorms within its vicinity. A third trough is analyzed from 55W to 59W with no convection associated with it. High pressure stretches across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1024 mb high near 44W. A trough is in the eastern Atlantic from 27W to 26W with no significant convection. Light to gentle winds are noted across the basin with fresh to strong northerly winds over the canary islands. Seas range 2-5 ft.

Weak low pressure centered near 73W is expected to dissipate overnight or early tue. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each night near the coast of Hispaniola and over the approach to the windward passage. Winds and seas will increase east of 65W tue night and wed as a tropical wave crosses the region. Another tropical wave, possibly accompanied by a trough or low pressure system, could increase winds and seas east of 65W fri night through sat night.

Posted 29 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Areinhart

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature