Tropical Waves

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W from 15N southward, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is found near this feature.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from south of Hispaniola southward across the Colombia/Venezuela border. It is moving westward around 10 kt. There is no significant convection near this feature.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea-Bissau coast, then continues southwestward to near 10N18W. An ITCZ extends westward from 10N18W across 09N35W to 08N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 140 nm along either side of both features.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and Panama.

Gulf Of Mexico

A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1019 mb high near the Florida Panhandle to a 1017 mb high near Veracruz, Mexico. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are present at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate E to NE winds and slight seas will continue through Fri along the periphery of building high pressure over the southeastern United States. An increasing pressure gradient between this high, multiple tropical waves moving through the Caribbean Sea, and persistent troughing over the Bay of Campeche will support moderate to fresh E to NE winds over central and eastern portions of the basin this weekend. By early next week, moderate to fresh E winds will spread westward through the western Gulf, with locally rough seas in E swell developing over the southeastern Gulf by Tue.

Caribbean Sea

A surface trough is causing widely scattered moderate convection at the northwestern basin. Convergent trade winds are also producing similar convection at the eastern basin. Fresh with locally strong ENE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are noted at the south-central basin. Gentle NNE to NE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are evident at the Gulf of Honduras and waters near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, a tropical wave currently moving across the central basin will progress westward over the next few days, reaching the western basin Fri night into Sat. A second tropical wave, currently approaching the Lesser Antilles, will enter the Caribbean Sea Friday morning and progress westward through this weekend. A tightening pressure gradient between building high pressure over the southeastern U.S. And troughing over the Caribbean will support fresh trades and building seas across much of the basin tonight into early next week, following these tropical waves. Periods of strong E winds and rough seas will be possible off the coast of Colombia each afternoon and night through Sun.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N58W to near 23N65W, then continues as a stationary front across the Turks and Caicos Islands to the Windward Passage. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near and up to 300 nm east of the cold front, and up to 80 nm south of the stationary front. An upper-level low near 27N39W and it reflected surface trough are generating scattered moderate convection north of 23N between 35W and 41W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Fresh to strong SE to S winds with 6 to 8 ft seas are seen north of 27N between 54W and the cold front. Otherwise, light to gentle with locally moderate NE to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are present north of 20N between 35W and the Florida/Georgia coast. Near the Canary Islands north of 20N between the northwest African coast and 35W, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas dominate. To the south from 10N to 20N between the central African coast and 40W, gentle NE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate N swell exist. Farther west from 08N to 20N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh E to ESE winds with 6 to 8 ft seas are noted. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the fresh to strong winds associated with the aforementioned cold front will diminish tonight through Fri. Rough seas will continue north of 27N and east of 72W before slowly diminishing through Sat. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will occur east of the Lesser Antilles through Fri, becoming gentle to moderate this weekend. A weak front will move through the waters off the coast of Florida and the Bahamas tonight into Fri, supporting moderate NE winds through this weekend. Looking ahead, increasing NE winds and building swell are expected west of 55W and north of the Greater Antilles early next week as a strong cold front moves through the waters off the east coast of Florida.

Posted 18 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Chan