BEFORE THE STORM
DURING THE STORM
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Blake
A weak eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W/29W from 01N to 10N, moving west at 15 kt. This feature remains poorly organized and drier Saharan air is limiting shower or thunderstorm activity, particularly on the northern half of the wave. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the wave axis from 00N-02N between 26W-29W.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W from 14N southward, moving westward 15 kt. A few thunderstorms are near the trough axis over Lake Maracaibo in Venezuela, while no significant weather is occurring over water.
The monsoon trough extends from the Guinea coast near 10N14W to 05N20W to 01N35W. The ITCZ continues from 01N35W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 05N between 12W and 16W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 02S to 01N between 39W and 46W.
Gulf Of Mexico
A large area of organized thunderstorm activity is off the mouth of the Rio Grande this morning. Some of these storms are considered severe, with frequent lightning, hail and gusts to gale force possible through the early morning within 20 nm of the coast. Please see latest advisories from the local NWS Brownsville office for more information. A sharp mid to upper trough is supporting this area of weather, interacting with a surface trough analyzed off the Texas coast. A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic into the northeast Gulf. This pattern is supporting mainly moderate SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas across the Gulf, except for moderate to fresh NE winds off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula where the nightly coastal trough has formed.
For the forecast, the trough off Texas will move northwest of the area this morning. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds through Wed with moderate seas. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to move into the western Gulf Thu and weaken as it reaches from the northeast Gulf to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Fri. It will be followed by gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas Fri and Sat.
Recent scatterometer satellite data and buoy observations show moderate to fresh E to Se winds over most of the Caribbean. Seas are 3 to 5 ft over the northwest Caribbean, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere, except maybe reaching 8 ft off Colombia. A mid-level trough over the Yucatan Peninsula is causing scattered moderate convection over the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident off northeast Panama, related to the monsoon trough in that area. A few thunderstorms are near Tortuga Island off Venezuela, at the base of a broad mid/upper trough extending across the eastern Caribbean.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the Caribbean, pulsing to fresh to strong north of Honduras tonight and Wed night. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off Colombia at night later in the week.
A 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 29N72W, leading to fairly benign weather across the western Atlantic. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are near the high pressure center. Farther south, moderate to fresh ESE winds extend from north of Hispaniola through the Bahamas to South Florida, including the Straits of Florida. A weak surface low analyzed near 30N62W is generating an area of moderate cyclonic flow. In the central Atlantic, a dissipating stationary front extends from 31N41W to 23N53W. Moderate to fresh southerly flow is noted east of the dying front to about 35W, north of 28N. 5 to 7 ft seas are noted in this area, with a component of NW swell. Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere west of 35W, except for areas of moderate to fresh E to SE winds from north of the Windward Passage to along the Old Bahama Channel. A few thunderstorms are noted in this area also. Farther east, winds are mainly gentle to moderate with fresh NE winds near the Canary Islands. Seas are moderate across the basin. 6-8 ft seas dominate north of 27N between 65W and 57W with 3-6 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure extending from near Bermuda to the Carolinas will remain nearly stationary through through mid week while gradually weakening. The area of high pressure will shift eastward Thu through Fri night ahead of a cold front that will move across the southeastern U.S. The associated pressure gradient will allow for mainly gentle to moderate winds across the region through the period, except for pulsing of moderate to fresh east winds between Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas.
Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen