Tropical Storm Claudette is centered near 30.4N 90.1W at 19/1200 UTC or 25 nm N of New Orleans Louisiana moving NNE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring within 270 nm of the center in the E semicircle. Rough seas over 12 ft are still occurring north of 28N between 86.5W and 90W, with peak seas to 18 ft. Tropical Storm Claudette is expected to turn toward the northeast later today, with a turn toward the east-northeast expected by tonight or Sunday. On the forecast track, the system should move farther inland over Louisiana during the next few hours, then move across portions of the southeastern states later today and Sunday, and over the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday. Claudette is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by tonight and become a post- tropical cyclone on Sunday. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm again over the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday. Claudette is expected to produce very heavy rain across portions of the central Gulf Coast. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts are possible across portions of the area through the afternoon.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.
The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W from 16N southward, and is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 34W to 40W.
The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W from 19N southward, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 200 nm of the wave.
The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W from 20N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted between Cuba and Jamaica from 18N to 20N between 75W to 80W.
The axis of a western Caribbean tropical wave is near 88W from 20N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are present in the vicinity of the wave axis in the Gulf of Honduras.
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 08N22W. The ITCZ continues from 08N22W to 09N33W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N40W to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Aside from the convection described in the tropical waves section, an area of numerous strong convection is noted south of the monsoon trough, off the coasts of Sierra Leone and Liberia, from 04N to 08N between 10W to 15W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 05N to 11N between 14W to 34W and from 03N to 08N between 40W to 46W.
Gulf Of Mexico
Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Claudette.
Scattered moderate convection is noted in the southern Gulf from 22N to 26N between 92W to 95W. Outside of the winds associated with Tropical Storm Claudette, generally fresh SE winds are occurring over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico, with gentle to moderate winds over the western basin. Seas across the Gulf are mainly in the 3-6 ft range.
For the forecast, Tropical Storm Claudette near 29.6N 90.7W 1006 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NNE at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Claudette will move inland to 30.9N 89.7W this afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 32.2N 87.6W by Sun morning. The majority of strongest winds and frequent squalls and thunderstorms are expected to occur north and east of T.S. Claudette through this afternoon. Rough seas are expected to continue across the north-central Gulf through this afternoon when seas are expected to subside below 12 ft. High pressure is forecast to build in across the basin in the wake of Three Sat night into early next week.
The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends in the extreme SW waters between eastern Panama and northern Colombia. Scattered thunderstorms are noted from 09N between 11N between 77W to 81W. Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to approach the Lesser Antilles as a tropical wave approaches the region.
Fresh to strong tradewinds are occurring in the central Caribbean. Mainly moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere in the basin. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft over the remainder of the forecast waters.
For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will combine with the Colombian low to support fresh to strong trades over the south- central Caribbean through Tue. Pulsing fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Wed night. A tropical wave currently located along 78W will continue to move W across the Caribbean today and enhance shower and thunderstorm activity. Another tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles by this evening and increase the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms through Sun.
A stationary front is draped along 30N between 64W to 71W. A trough extends south of this front from 30N62W to 28N68W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring along and east of the trough, N of 26N between 55W to 66W. Isolated thunderstorms are also noted across the Bahamas. Otherwise, high pressure extends across the central and eastern Atlantic. A 1021 mb low is noted near 29N26W with a cold front extending west of the low to 31N32W. Showers are along the front. Light to gentle winds prevail over the waters north of 24N, with moderate to fresh winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range west of 75W, and 3-6 ft elsewhere north of 2N. South of 20N, seas are in the 6-8 ft range.
For the forecast west of 65W, a ridge will build across the area on Sat and dominate the area through midweek. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the weekend and into early next week. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at night over Hispaniola adjacent waters through Wed night. Expect showers and thunderstorms to increase across the waters N of 26N tonight into Sun.
Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Hagen/Areinhart