Low pressure of 1009 mb is centered near 30W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 160 nm of the center of the low. Environmental conditions appear conducive enough to support additional development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while it moves generally westward at 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic. Conditions are likely to become less conducive for development late this week. This low has a medium probability of tropical cyclogenesis. Please see the latest Atlantic tropical weather outlook for more information.
A tropical wave axis is near 30W south of 15N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 30W and 35W. Low pressure is along the wave axis, where the wave intersects The Monsoon Trough. There is a medium probability for the low to develop into a tropical cyclone. Please see the special features section above for more information.
A tropical wave axis is near 47W south of 20N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 16N to 20N between 44W and 48W. Isolated showers are also seen within 50 nm of the wave.
A tropical wave axis is near 65W south of 17N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm of the wave axis across Venezuela.
A tropical wave axis is near 82W south of 19N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered strong convection is noted south of 18N, between 77W and 86W, including portions of Central America from eastern Honduras southward to Panama.
The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 16W to 28W to 50W. The ITCZ continues from 50W to the coast of Venezuela near 61W. Scattered strong convection is noted along The Monsoon Trough from 08N-12N between 35W-41W. Otherwise, scattered moderate moderate convection is noted within 200 nm of The Monsoon Trough and ITCZ between the coast of Africa to 55W.
Gulf of Mexico
A 1021 mb high pressure center is analyzed over the northeast Gulf near 86W with a ridge axis extending westward across the northern waters. A surface trough is in the southwest Gulf from 97W to 93W. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the southwest Gulf, south of 21N between 91W-97W. Isolated thunderstorms are seen in the eastern Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail across the basin with moderate winds in the southwest Gulf. Seas range 2-4 ft.
High pressure centered over the northeast Gulf will result in gentle to moderate winds with slight seas across much of the area through the upcoming week. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected each evening in the eastern bay of Campeche near the Yucatan Peninsula due to local effects.
See the tropical waves section above for details on the convection associated with the two tropical waves over the Caribbean.
Isolated thunderstorms are noted across portions of the greater antilles with showers moving across the Lesser Antilles. Otherwise, strong to near gale-force winds prevail over the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh winds are noted from the eastern-central Caribbean to the northwest Caribbean, in addition to the windward passage. Gentle to moderate winds are in the eastern basin. Seas range 4-9 ft with 11 ft north of Colombia near the strongest winds.
Near gale-force winds will pulse near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela overnight, resulting in large seas in northeast swell across the waters south of 18N and west of 72W through mon. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the south-central Caribbean waters through the upcoming week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse for the next several nights through the windward passage. Winds and seas may increase over the tropical north Atlantic waters during the middle of the upcoming week as a tropical wave crosses the region.
A relatively weak pressure pattern prevails across the subtropical Atlantic waters, leading to gentle to moderate winds across most of the area. A 1019 mb low is in the western Atlantic near 73W with a surface trough extending along it from 70W to 77W. Isolated showers are within the vicinity of the trough. Two other troughs are analyzed in the central atlantic: from 60W to 57W, and from 49W to 52W. Isolated showers are near these troughs. Otherwise, high pressure spans across the basin anchored by a 1021 mb high near 67W. In the eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong northerly winds are noted across the canary islands. Seas range from 3-7 ft.
Weak low pressure centered near 73W will remain nearly stationary well offshore of the northwest Bahamas through mon, then dissipate by mon night. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each night near the coast of Hispaniola and the approach to the windward passage. Winds and seas may increase east of 65W during the middle and latter parts of the upcoming week as a tropical wave crosses the region.
Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Areinhart