BEFORE THE STORM
DURING THE STORM
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Arlene, located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Arlene are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Arlene are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.
Posted 53 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Arlene is centered near 26.4N 85.8W at 02/2100 UTC or 210 nm W of Ft. Myers Florida moving SSE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. The sea heights that are close to the tropical storm are ranging from 6 ft to a maximum of 10 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate convection prevails within 180 nm of the center in the NE quadrant.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.
The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 34W from 13N to 02N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave axis.
The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 16N to 04N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 50W and 53W.
The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 67W from 07N to 18N, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is occurring at this time.
The monsoon trough extends from near 10N14W to 08N22W. The ITCZ continues from 08N22W to 07N32W, then resumes from 06N36W to 05N50W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N-10N between 14W-50W.
Gulf Of Mexico
Please read the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Arlene.
Aside from Tropical Storm Arlene, moderate winds are noted N of the Yucatan peninsula, then gentle winds elsewhere W of 90W. Light to gentle winds prevail over the SE Gulf. Seas are in the 2-3 ft range west of 90W, and 1-2 ft E of 90W. Some smoke and haze with reductions to visibility are possible in the southern Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche due to ongoing agricultural fires over southern Mexico and northern Central America.
For the forecast, Arlene will weaken to a tropical depression near 25.3N 85.6W Sat morning, then become a remnant low and move to 24.0N 84.9W Sat afternoon, 23.2N 83.9W Sun morning, before dissipating Sun afternoon. Elsewhere over the western Gulf, gentle to moderate winds are expected into middle of next week. Over the western Gulf, gentle to moderate winds are expected into early next week, with occasional fresh pulses along the W coast of Yucatan.
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave currently over the eastern Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh winds are noted east of 75W, with light to gentle winds prevailing over the remainder of the Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range east of 75W, and 2-3 ft west of 75W.
For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean and the tropical N Atlantic through the end of week, with occasional fresh pulses along the N coast of Venezuela and Colombia. Winds over the central part of the basin will diminish early next week.
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin.
A surface trough extends from the northern Bahamas northeastward to 1003 mb low pressure near 31N67W. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, are noted within 90 nm east of the trough. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft are elsewhere W of 70W. A cold front has entered the central Atlantic extending along 27N between 27W-31W. Scattered showers are noted within 160 nm on either side of the front. High pressure is centered near 22N34W. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-6 ft, are noted north of 22N and east of 55W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are prevail south of 20N.
For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong winds are likely near and to the SE of the low as it shifts ENE through early next week, impacting zones mainly north of 25N and east of 65W. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and building seas are expected over the waters off northeast Florida late this weekend through early Mon.
Posted 48 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era