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Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located over the west-central Caribbean Sea is expected to move westward over the next couple of days and interact with a frontal system, producing a broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea by Thursday night or Friday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, medium, 60 percent.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Pasch

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

Gulf Of Mexico Gale Warning

A cold front extending from 27N82W to 16N93W will continue to support gale force winds in the SW basin behind the front through 12Z this morning. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and NE of the front affecting the Yucatan Peninsula and Bay of Campeche. Seas ranging between 12-16 ft will diminish through the next 24 hours as the front weakens and dissipates. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave extends its axis along 27W from 01N-15N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-14N between 23W-33W.

A tropical wave axis is along 50W from 01N-16N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and east of the wave's axis from 08N-15N between 44W-52W.

A tropical wave axis is along 66W from 03N-19N, moving west at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted in the vicinity of this wave at this time.

A tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean is currently located along 77W, moving west at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N-22N between 75W-82W. This wave will continue moving westward across the basin through the period accompanied by active weather and enhanced winds. This feature is expected to become part of a broad low-pressure area over the western Caribbean within the next few days.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 06N37W. The ITCZ extends from 06N37W to 09N48W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section above, no significant convection is noted near these boundaries at this time.

Gulf Of Mexico

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the SW Gulf.

Drier air is moving into the northwest Gulf behind the cold front as surface ridging builds across the area. The most recent scatterometer data depicts fresh northerly winds NW of the front, while gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail SE of the front.

The front will continue to move E of the basin through today. A second front will enter the northern Gulf on Sat. Strong high pressure building behind this front will support fresh northeast winds over most of the SE Gulf by the end of the week. These winds may reach strong speeds on Sat along with building seas.

Caribbean Sea

A tropical wave is moving over the west Caribbean, while another one is approaching Puerto Rico. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details.

Across the southwest Caribbean, the extension of the EPAC's monsoon trough is analyzed along 10N between 75W-83W with scattered to numerous moderate convection. Scatterometer data depicts light to moderate trade winds across most of the basin except east of 76W, where fresh to strong winds are noted.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over the eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere, except for gentle winds over the northwestern Caribbean through Thu morning. The tropical wave along 77W will move over the Gulf of Honduras by Thu evening inducing fresh to strong winds and building seas. There is a medium chance for this feature to evolve into a tropical cyclone through the next 5 days.

Atlantic Ocean

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the tropical Atlantic.

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1032 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 41N45W.

Fresh to strong winds mainly to the NE of the Bahamas will prevail this morning ahead of a cold front that has entered the NW forecast waters, extending from 31N79W to 28N81W. The front will stall and dissipate through Thu. A tropical wave that will move across the west Caribbean will support moderate to fresh winds over the SE forecast waters this weekend.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Era

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature