For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2020. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
Posted 4 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven
The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Africa near 13W to 17W. The ITCZ extends continues from 17W to the coast of Brazil near 45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm of the ITCZ.
A 1010 mb surface low is centered near 92W. A cold front extends from the low to 98W, then continues as a stationary front across northeast Mexico. A warm front extend from the low to 89W. Scattered showers can be expected along the frontal boundaries. To the south, a surface trough extends across the bay of Campeche from 92W to 94W. This feature is well depicted in model streamlines and in current observations. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds across most of the basin. Fresh to strong northerly winds are noted north of the low/front.
The low pressure system will move eastward and weaken through the day while pulling its cold front into the central Gulf. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds behind the front will diminish as it stalls over the central Gulf tonight into mon, then dissipates by mon night. High pressure will build over the southwest north Atlantic early this week, with a ridge to extend westward across the eastern Gulf through mid-week. Another cold front may move into the northern Gulf late thu night. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each evening north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Limited shower activity is noted in Caribbean radar imagery this morning as a mid-level ridge prevails over the northwest Caribbean. The pressure gradient between weak high pressure over the Bahamas and the colombian low is driving fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia. Fresh winds are also noted over the Gulf of Honduras and the windward passage. Gentle to moderate trades persist across the remainder of the basin.
Winds over the basin will gradually increase through the middle of this week as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will continue pulsing each night over the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong winds with locally higher seas will prevail along the coast of Colombia through the middle of this week. Long-period northerly swell will continue affecting the waters east of the Leeward Islands through mon night, then subside through mid-week.
A 1014 mb surface low is centered east of the Florida peninsula near 81W, with a surface trough extending from 81W to 80W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the low mainly west of 73W. To the east, a stationary front extends from 38W to 68W. Scattered showers prevail within 165 nm east of the front.
The deep low pressure north of the area over the west-central Atlantic will continue moving away from the forecast waters today, allowing winds to diminish over the basin. Northerly swell generated by this low will produce very large seas across the waters east of the Bahamas through mon night. The front over the central Atlantic will dissipate tonight into early mon. High pressure will move southeast across the northern waters late mon through tue night, then maintain a ridge across the central waters through mid-week. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to move off the southeast U.S. Coast by late thu night.
Era
Posted 2 hours ago
