Special Features

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning

As of 12/2100 UTC, a strong cold front extends over the Gulf from the Florida big bend near 83W to 92W to 94W. Veracruz Mexico recently recorded winds of 30 kt with gusts of 40 kt. The 12/1545 UTC scatterometer pass showed peak winds of 40-45 kt from the north to the east of tampico. Buoy 42055, located near 22.1N 93.9W, reported seas of 18 ft at 12/2140 UTC. Gale force winds and high seas will continue overnight and into early wed over the southwest Gulf of Mexico offshore of Veracruz as the front continues eastward. See the latest NWS high seas forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under awips/wmo headers hsfat2/fznt02 kNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

West Atlantic Gale Warning

A strong cold front extends from 79W to near Jacksonville Florida as of 12/2100 UTC. The front will extend from 76W to vero beach, fl by late tonight. Gale force north winds are anticipated behind the front from late tonight through early wed, before slowly diminishing. Seas will quickly build to near 15 ft by early wed. See the latest NWS high seas forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under awips/wmo headers hsfat2/fznt02 kNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning

A strong pressure gradient between the 1030 mb Azores High at 34W and a surface trough over northwest Africa is producing gale- force north to northeast winds near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone agadir of meteo France. In the canarias and in tarfaya, winds have diminished to near 30 kt. The gales in agadir are expected to persist until 13/0300 UTC before diminishing below gale force, according to the meteo France high seas forecast listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2

Tropical Waves

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 44W from 19N southward is moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 03N to 15N between 34W and 41W. This convection is being enhanced by upper-level divergence produced by a vigorous upper-level trough west of the wave. The wave has a well-defined surface trough and is the combination of a true african easterly wave and the upper-level trough.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis near 62W from 20N southward, moving west around 10 kt. Drier air seen in the total precipitable water imagery is noted in the waves environment, limiting convection at this time. The wave is primarily observed from the gfs-based trough diagnostics, with little surface component noted.

A west-central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 78/79W from 18N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Drier air is present near the wave, limiting convection. The wave is identifiable primarily from the 700 mb trough diagnostics.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 15W to 19W. The ITCZ continues from there to 41W. In addition to the convection related to the tropical wave described above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 03N to 08N between 25W and 34W.

Gulf of Mexico

Refer to the section above for details on the gale warning currently in effect.

A surface trough over the northwest Caribbean is inducing scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan channel.

The strong cold front will continue to race southeast, clearing the basin early wed. Gale force winds and high seas will linger over the bay of Campeche and offshore Veracruz through early wed. Another cold front will move into the Gulf thu, followed by strong winds and high seas, possibly reaching gale force offshore of Veracruz fri. That front will clear the basin fri night with winds and seas diminishing during the weekend. Yet another cold front may move into the western Gulf late sun.

Caribbean Sea

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin.

A surface trough extends from Jamaica to cancun. Scattered moderate showers and tstorms are seen in the northwest Caribbean, mainly north of 20N and west of 81.5W. Dry air and subsidence cover most of the remainder of the basin. Trades are moderate in the eastern and central Caribbean, and gentle in the western basin.

A cold front will stall across the Yucatan channel wed afternoon and evening with hazardous winds and seas near the channel. A stronger cold front will move southeast of the Yucatan channel fri night, stalling from eastern Cuba to offshore of Nicaragua sun. Otherwise, a weak pres gradient across the basin will lead to generally moderate tradewinds over most of the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

Refer to the section above for details on the gale warnings currently in effect and tropical wave moving across the basin.

A stationary front over the west-central Atlantic extends from a 1017 mb low near 60W southwestward to 65W to 71W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring well east of the front from 23N to 31N between 55W and 61W. Winds in association with the front are only gentle to moderate. Surface ridging prevails across the reminder of the basin, anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 34W.

The cold front from 79W to Jacksonville to 90W will reach from southeast of Bermuda across the Bahamas to the straits of Florida on Wednesday before stalling. Gale force winds will follow this cold front off the northeast coast of Florida tonight, and shift eastward across the northern waters west of 72W through wed morning. Strong to near gale force winds and high seas will prevail northwest of the boundary through thu. As the front dissipates late week, winds and seas will also diminish. Low pres is expected to develop along the old frontal remnants off the northeast Florida and Georgia coasts fri and drift northeast, with potential for gales by sat. This low will drag another cold front across the basin west of 70W through the remainder of the upcoming weekend.

Posted 1 hour, 41 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Hagen