Tropics Watch

Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2020. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

Posted 2 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning

Gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia at night during the next couple of nights, with winds to near gale force during the day. Sea heights will reach as high as 17 ft. Please read the latest high seas forecast, under awips/wmo headers miahsfat2/fznt02 kNHC, or see the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The Monsoon Trough passes through coast Liberia near 08W to 20W. The ITCZ continues from 20W to 35W to the coast of Brazil near 40W. Scattered moderate convection is observed north of the ITCZ from 00N to 04N between 25W and 27W.

Gulf of Mexico

A stationary front reaches from near crystal river Florida to 1015 mb low pressure off Panama City Florida, then westward toward the northern coast of Texas. Platform observations from this morning show visibilities of 3 nm or less in fog over much of the northwest Gulf near the front, with dense fog ongoing mainly close to the Texas coast. Considerable low to mid level cloud cover is observed along and north of the front, and a few showers are noted on radar imagery over the big bend area of Florida, moving onshore. Mid to high level cloudiness is moving eastward across the northwest Gulf. Generally fair skies prevail elsewhere, with no showers or thunderstorms. Buoy observations and scatterometer data show moderate southeast flow over the western Gulf, with gentle breezes mainly over the eastern Gulf. Seas are 2 to 4 ft.

The stationary front over the northern Gulf will weaken and lift northward later today. A new cold front will enter the northwest Gulf tue night and slowly move southward through wed night, followed by a stronger reinforcing cold front that will quickly cross the Gulf thu through fri. Gale force conditions are possible west of this front offshore of Veracruz, Mexico fri into fri night. Elsewhere, expect strengthening northeast winds and building seas across the Gulf following the second cold front.

Caribbean Sea

Scatterometer satellite data and ship observations from around 14 UTC confirmed near gale force winds off the coast of Colombia. The strongest winds are within 90 nm of the coast between santa marta and cartagena. A nearby vessel also reported seas to 13 ft, although higher seas are likely in the area of stronger winds. High pressure north of the area continues to support fresh to strong trade winds over the eastern and central Caribbean, with seas 5 to 8 ft. Moderate northeast to east winds are evident over the northwest Caribbean, with 3 to 5 ft seas.

Regional radar shows scattered trade wind showers across the Leeward Islands, enhanced by mid to upper level troughing over the local area. Isolated showers are evident elsewhere across the northern Caribbean in the trade wind flow, with drier conditions noted farther south from The Windward Islands through the south central Caribbean. Trade wind convergence is supporting scattered showers off the Caribbean coastlines of western Panama and Costa Rica.

For the forecast, gale force winds will continue to pulse off the coast of Colombia each night through thu night. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the central Caribbean through thu night, then diminish fri as high pressure weakens north of the area. Long period north to northeast swell will move into Atlantic passages of the eastern Caribbean tonight through thu, then subside fri and fri night.

Atlantic Ocean

West of 65W, a weak stationary front is analyzed from 59W to about 72W. Another weak stationary front reaches from off the Georgia coast southwestward into northeast Florida. A very weak 1017 mb low pressure area is evident with the help of recent scatterometer data near 80W off the coast of northeast Florida. The scatterometer also indicated fresh southerly winds north of the northern Bahamas between this low and 1022 mb high pressure centered near 72W. Fresh easterly winds are noted farther south, mainly south of 22N. Altimeter and buoy observations show seas of 6 to 9 ft in open waters, with a component of northerly swell.

For the forecast, the weak stationary front will lift north of the area tonight. A ridge will extend across the northern waters through mid week, ahead of the next cold front that will move off the southeast U.S. Coast on wed. This front will briefly stall over the northern waters wed night and thu, then push southward across the region thu night through fri night. Gale conditions are possible west of the front across the northern waters thu night and fri, with large northerly swell expected to impact much of the area by fri night.

Elsewhere over Atlantic north waters south of 32N, strong 1040 mb high pressure centered near the Azores is supporting a broad area of fresh trades mainly south of 22N and west of 30W. Fresh to strong northeast winds are evident off the northwest coast of Africa. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in the areas of stronger winds, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. An upper level low centered off the coast of Western Sahara is supporting multilevel cloudiness along the coast as well.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature