Special Features

Gale Warning For The Canary Islands: Meteo-France issued a Gale Warning for the Canary Islands until 07/00Z. Seas in the area range from 8 to 10 ft. For more details, please visit the Meteo France High Seas Forecast listed on the website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W from near the Cabo Verde Islands southward, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 20W and 28W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 18N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered showers are present from 05N to 07N between 32W and 35W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 16N southward, and moving west around 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is found from 06N to 09N between 50W and 56W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 78W from just west of Jamaica southward to near the Panama-Colombia border. It is moving west around 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near the Cayman Islands.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Mauritania and Senegal, then curves southwestward through 09N25W to 08N39W. An ITCZ continues westward from 08N39W to north of French Guiana at 08N51W. Scattered moderate convection is evident south of the monsoon trough from 07N to 11N between the Senegal- Guiana coast and 20W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica.

Gulf Of America

A surface trough extends southwestward across central Florida into the east-central Gulf, then turns northwestward to near New Orleans. Aided by a robust upper-level low at the central Gulf, widely scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are occurring across the central and eastern Gulf. A 1016 high south of New Orleans is supporting gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas for the central and northeast coast. Gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, a surface trough will persist across the northeastern Gulf today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop along this trough over the waters near Florida. Weak high pressure will then prevail into the middle of the week. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through at least Wed as a trough develops inland daily and then drifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and low pressure in Colombia continues to support a semi-robust trade wind regime across much of the basin. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for convection in the basin. Fresh with locally strong easterly trades and seas of 6 to 7 ft are evident across the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh E winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted at the north-central basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the south-central basin through Thu night. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the eastern basin while gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere, with the exception of fresh to strong E winds in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, through Thursday.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning issued by Meteo-France for the Canary Islands.

Aided by divergent winds aloft, a surface trough is triggering scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 23N to 28N between 62W and 70W. Farther east, the tail end of an upper-level trough is generating widely scattered moderate convection north of 27N between 32W and 37W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic basin. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas dominate north of 27N between 73W and the northeast Florida/southern Georgia coast. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge is supporting gentle winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft north of a line from 31N40W to 23N75W. Farther south and east from 10N to the line from 31N40W to 23N75W, gentle to moderate ENE to E winds with 4 to 7 ft seas exist. Gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas related to Tropical Depression Chantal, inland North Carolina, are still affecting the waters offshore NE Florida. As Chantal continues to move away from the forecast area, the Atlantic ridge will build westward toward Florida and the Bahamas. This pattern will support generally gentle to moderate winds, except for fresh to locally strong E to SE winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola through Thu night.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Chan