ORLANDO, Fla. – It’s still early in the 2025 hurricane season, but the tropics are beginning to show signs of activity.
According to the National Hurricane Center on Wednesday morning, no new areas of possible development are expected within the next seven days.
However, looking beyond that period, there is something worth watching as mid-July approaches.
The latest long-range outlook from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center highlights a growing area of interest in the Gulf.
Long-range forecast
While the Climate Prediction Center doesn’t forecast specific storms, it monitors overall patterns favorable for tropical development one to two weeks out.
These outlooks focus on factors such as increased storminess, lower pressure, warm ocean temperatures and supportive wind patterns.
The center says there is at least a 20% chance of tropical development in the northern Gulf near the southern U.S. coastline from July 16-22.
Though this isn’t an official forecast from the National Hurricane Center yet, both agencies often work closely on early signals of potential development.
Recent model runs, including the European model, show weak indications that a tropical low could develop during the timeframe.
Formation zones
Development in this area is not unusual.
In July, typical formation zones include the Gulf of Mexico, western Caribbean and just off the Southeast U.S. coast.
A combination of warm waters and occasional dips in the jet stream helps fuel early-season storms in these regions.
There is no immediate threat to Florida at this time, but this serves as a reminder that the tropics are slowly waking up. It’s important to stay alert, check forecasts regularly and begin hurricane season preparations if you haven’t already.