ORLANDO, Fla. – As NASA’s Crew-11 astronauts get ready for their Thursday afternoon liftoff from Florida’s Space Coast, meteorologists are monitoring conditions both at home and far out over the Atlantic. Why?
Because launch weather isn’t just about clear skies over the launch pad, it also includes safety checks all along the rocket’s flight path, even stretching as far as Ireland.
If an emergency were to occur shortly after liftoff, the spacecraft could need to make an ocean splashdown. That’s why mission planners closely track sea conditions across the North Atlantic. High waves can complicate recovery efforts and put the crew at greater risk.
Wave Conditions
Conditions are looking solid.
Wave heights from Florida to the northeast Atlantic are forecast to stay in the 2- to 4-foot range, which is well within the safety threshold for recovery teams.
Launch Weather Outlook
Back at the launch pad, things are shaping up nicely.
Forecasters are giving a 90% chance of favorable conditions. Winds are light, rain chances are low, and skies are expected to cooperate. The only minor concern is the chance of an early sea breeze forming, which could briefly raise the risk of violating the Cumulus Cloud Rule, but that risk remains low.
Thunder or Sonic Boom?
While some afternoon storms might rumble across the Space Coast, they won’t be the only booms in the sky. Just under eight minutes after liftoff, the rocket’s booster will return to land at Landing Zone 1 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station.
Its return will create a thunderous sonic boom, a deep, loud sound similar to distant thunder, that many on the Space Coast will hear shortly after the booster touches down.
Weather for Rocket-Watchers
Planning to stake out a good viewing spot?
Get ready for plenty of sunshine and some serious heat. Around noon, temperatures will climb into the low 90s, but it will feel closer to 100 degrees.
Make sure to bring water, wear sunscreen and take breaks in the shade if you’re out in the sun for long.
If you’re heading to the beach to watch the launch, the forecast looks great too!
Surf will be around 1–2 feet with warm ocean temps in the mid-80s, and the rip current risk is low. However, be on the lookout for a few scattered storms from 1 p.m. to 4 p.m..
Remember, lightning can strike more than 10 miles away from a storm. If you hear thunder or see lightning, seek shelter immediately and wait for the storm to pass.