ORLANDO, Fla. – While Hurricane Erin continues to make waves in the western Atlantic, attention is now turning to a pair of developing tropical systems further east.
With the heart of hurricane season approaching, conditions are becoming more favorable for storm development.
Area Near Leeward Islands
The more immediate concern lies with a tropical wave currently in the central Atlantic, roughly halfway between the coast of Africa and the Caribbean.
This broad area of showers and thunderstorms remains disorganized for now, but environmental conditions look favorable for gradual development as it drifts west-northwest.
According to the National Hurricane Center, there’s a low (10%) chance of formation in the next 48 hours, but the seven-day outlook increases to 60%, signaling a decent possibility that this could become a tropical depression by the weekend.
The system is expected to pass near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands, and while it’s too early to determine any direct impacts, we will need to stay alert heading into early next week.
Area Near Cabo Verde Islands
Further east, just southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, another disturbance (designated Invest 99L) is showing signs of organization but still lacks a closed surface circulation, which is a key ingredient for tropical development. Satellite wind data suggest some strengthening could happen over the next day or two as it moves west.
However, the window for development appears to be short. The NHC gives this system a 40% chance of development over both the next 48 hours and seven days, noting that less favorable conditions are expected to take over by the end of the week, likely cutting off its chances of becoming a named storm.
Over the next 10 days, forecast models will get a clearer read on the track and structure of both of these systems. For now, neither is an immediate threat to land, but the pattern is worth watching closely as we get closer to the average peak of hurricane season.