ORLANDO, Fla. – Tropical Storm Melissa is on the move, but its path and future strength remain highly uncertain.
As of Wednesday morning, the storm has reorganized with potential impacts to Haiti, Jamaica, and possibly Cuba, by the weekend.
A Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Melissa’s center re-formed northeast of its previous location. This is a notable shift, and it complicates the forecast.
Melissa is holding steady with winds at 50 mph. The storm is moving slowly west-northwest at about 2 mph, but forecasters have low confidence in this motion due to the complex nature of its structure.
Track Forecast
There’s a clear split in forecast models, with some pushing Melissa northward toward Hispaniola or Cuba, while others swing it more westward, south of Jamaica, as a ridge of high pressure rebuilds over the Bahamas.
This disagreement hinges on how strong and organized Melissa becomes in the next few days. If it stays weaker, it’s more likely to slide west. If it becomes more organized, it may be pulled farther north into a gap in the upper-level pattern.
Intensity Outlook
Melissa will be battling moderate wind shear in the short term, but the very warm Caribbean waters and moist atmosphere could support gradual intensification.
If the storm takes the more southern route, where the environment is more favorable, there’s a chance Melissa could strengthen significantly, possibly becoming a hurricane by Friday.
However, if the storm trends southwest, models suggest a greater chance for it to reach major hurricane strength next week.
Key Impacts
- Heavy rain and flash flooding are expected in parts of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica over the coming days.
- Landslides are possible in mountainous areas.
- Strong winds may impact areas under watches as early as late Friday.