ORLANDO, Fla. – Despite the subtle bite to the air, and the thick sheets of fog settling in during our morning hours here in town, the thermometer keeps getting closer to record high temperatures at the warmest point of the day.
Wednesday through to the weekend will carry this trend along even further, with forecast highs increasing between now and Saturday. We could try to match if not surpass a few records in Central Florida, especially Thursday and Friday.
I noticed our forecasted highs on Tuesday came in below what was observed outdoors. For example, Orlando was forecast to see a high of around 79 degrees particularly according to a number of our higher resolution computer models. We saw Orlando reach 81 degrees at about 4 p.m. Tuesday afternoon, two degrees higher than computer model output. This leads me to suspect we could be even warmer Wednesday and moving ahead through the short-term future because subtropical high pressure refuses to go anywhere.
You could almost say this is Florida’s last grasp at keeping with the “Sunshine State” moniker. Next week, we see the tables turn, and winter’s true arrival could be in store for us.
Now, immediately, we won’t be dipping into freezing temps let alone sub freezing temperatures with the arrival of our next polar air mass! I think that also plays a role in why it will stick around a little bit longer.
I love to fall back on analogies pertaining to cars – higher horsepower builds can only go around the track for so long before something breaks and you’re back in the pits. A lower horsepower, more bulletproof set up can go around that same track for much longer because it’s dialed in all the way around.
The last few plunges of cold weather have been strong, resulting in a couple of consistent mornings where we’ve woken up to temperatures that either feel below freezing or are literally at that freezing point when looking at air temperature.
The mornings ahead next week will be fairly chilly, and will require you to add a couple of layers before you head out the door. You might also want to pre-start your car’s heater if you have that added luxury.
But afternoons will be pleasant for the most part, with high temps coming up to around the mid to upper 60s and occasional low 70s between cold fronts.
I’ll also dig a little deeper and say, looking at mid to long-range graphical charts of what surface temperatures could be not only past this weekend but well beyond that, upper 70s and low 80s are becoming FAR more infrequent.
That’s why I truly believe this may be the start to Florida’s more authentic winter where we trend back toward average temperatures and avoid these above normal outbreaks. Eventually the equator has to lose its grip on our area!
All the signs are there if you step back from our local pattern and examine what’s going on around the country and even beyond that.
A few different teleconnections, which I’m sure you’ve read me reference before, point towards a more persistent funneling of cooler weather from up north across the eastern half of the United States.
Some of these include the Pacific North American Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, and the North Atlantic Oscillation. There’s still some variability to iron out, but the general trend seems to be we’ll be loaded up for more pushes of polar if not arctic air over the next couple of weeks.
The one trouble area – a lack of rainfall.
Cold air is one thing, but there aren’t any noticeable signals of big time rains headed our way to help alleviate the growing drought concerns.
I’ll have more on that in a later article, because I truly believe it will become a talking point in the next few weeks and the remainder of winter time.
I’m also seeing the potential we trend towards El Nino conditions as we get into this upcoming summer/hurricane season, which will also have implications on when we’re supposed to enter our rainy season.
We can talk more about that at a later time, but for now let’s all do our part to be aware of our water usage, take care of our lawns and gardens while we can, and be kind if you do happen to see unfamiliar guests on your property. We’re all here trying to fulfill the same purpose – find some of that liquid gold!