ORLANDO, Fla. – We’ve picked up some very beneficial rain over a good chunk of the Florida Peninsula after yesterday’s enormous swath came across the state. Thankfully, the forecast didn’t call for the rain with the strong storms along with it.
Today we’ve switched gears – we’re far more primed for some strong to even severe thunderstorms in localized portions of Osceola and Brevard counties.
The rest of us will probably remain beneath clouds and limited sunshine with all this leftover moisture sitting overtop of us.
That combo sets us up to develop some isolated but more punchy storms as we roll through the rest of the afternoon and early evening.
A driving mechanism in this whole concoction is a stationary boundary stuck right over the four corners counties. We’ve had a weak cold front drifting through the state that helped drive in all the rain and moisture we witnessed yesterday.
That same front has lost its momentum, and has nearly pushed pause in its movement altogether.
Why is it important? With a boundary draped overhead, it creates a bit of interesting influence in the flow around the state. This helps elevate the chances for more organized thunderstorms to develop once the ground gets hot enough to create quality lift.
It also helps cap where it is the rains will fall. The further north you go, the less likely you are to see any rain whatsoever for the day today. Tomorrow will also be a repeat as that front tries to flow more and more south into southern Florida.
So, between now and around 8 p.m. we’ll need to keep an eye out for thunderheads on the horizon. Our east coast sea breeze is beginning its trek inland as well, which signals to me that our peninsula is warm enough to produce storms.
Don’t let this stop you from enjoying your Saturday though! This will be an isolated event, and the downpours will be pretty sporadic, especially as you head into Polk, Osceola, and Brevard counties.
Storm Prediction Center continues to tag Osceola and Brevard counties in particular for a low-end risk for severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and large hail.
The tornado potential is pretty low right now, since everything is stationary the higher up you go in the atmosphere there’s not much to help get storms spinning.
Then tomorrow, and into the early days of March (can you believe it’s already the third month of 2026?), we’ll see rain chances drop a bit further.
You should see little to no impacts or threats to your plans for breakfast, church, brunch, or any other errands you may have to run to set yourself up for success as the new week rolls in.
A saving grace, if you will, is going to be the position of high pressure over the western Atlantic.
This will create rough seas along our east coast, but it will also help drive moisture towards us through the week ahead. Seeing rain across the board is far from a guarantee, but it’s excellent news for spots that do get the beneficial water to come down on them.
Drought conditions impact the entirety of Florida. Anywhere we can pick up some extra rain, the better from here on out.
The main reason I emphasize this; spring is coming in.
We’ll remain in above average temperatures for much of the first half of March. Upper 70s and low 80s are to be expected, with fairly comfortable or mild mornings for the viewing area.
Looking ahead, I am seeing a chance for some pretty gnarly nationwide weather as we get towards March 10th. So perhaps make a note of that date in particular, and we’ll send out recurring updates as we get closer in time.