ORLANDO, Fla. – The National Hurricane Center is now tracking Tropical Depression 2 in the Gulf. This is the area of low pressure we’ve been monitoring. The NHC initiated advisories on TD 2 at 11 a.m. Sunday. As of 11:00, maximum sustained winds were 30 MPH, and the system is moving slowly northwest at 2 MPH. A tropical storm watch is in effect for part of the Florida coast from Ochlockonee River to the Alabama border. TD 2 is expected to strengthen, becoming Tropical Storm Bertha by late Monday.
As the system drifts northwest, the greatest impacts, including the potential for heavy rain, will stay focused on Florida’s west coast, the Panhandle, and portions of the northern Gulf Coast. For Central Florida, the system’s westward track means our rain chances will gradually decrease.
Today, our highest rain chances will be across our western counties, including Lake, Marion, and Sumter, where rain chances climb to around 50%-60%. Most other areas have about a 40% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Even though storms will not be widespread, any that develop could become strong. The Storm Prediction Center continues to place most of Central Florida under a Level 1 of 5 Marginal Risk for severe weather. The strongest storms will be capable of producing wind gusts up to 55 mph, torrential downpours, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. Localized rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are possible where storms linger, with isolated higher amounts that could lead to minor flooding.
Temperatures will remain seasonably hot, with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 90s and heat index values climbing to 100-107 degrees.
Looking ahead, as TD 2 pulls farther away and weakens, our rain chances continue to trend downward through the workweek. Daily afternoon storms will still be possible, but coverage should become more isolated, allowing for more sunshine and a gradual warming trend into the middle and latter part of the week.