ORLANDO, Fla. – It’s back to school for many Central Florida students, and the first few days of the new school year will bring plenty of August heat but fewer afternoon storms than we typically see this time of year.
Kids waiting for the bus Monday and Tuesday morning can expect a warm and muggy start, with temperatures generally in the upper 70s. By the afternoon ride home, temperatures will climb into the low to mid-90s, with only a few spotty showers and storms around.
Rain chances drop to just 20-30% Monday afternoon, which is below normal for early August. Any storms that do develop could still become strong, with frequent lightning, gusty winds of 30 to 50 mph and locally heavy rain.
The bigger weather story this week will be the heat.
A strong ridge of high pressure over Florida will help keep afternoon temperatures in the low to mid-90s. Combined with high humidity, it will feel more like 102 to 107 degrees across much of Central Florida Monday afternoon.
The hottest part of the day will generally fall between 11 a.m. and 4 p.m., so students heading home from school or participating in afternoon practices and activities will need to take the heat seriously.
Drier pattern sticks around
Rain chances remain lower than normal through much of the next seven days.
A layer of drier air moving into Florida will limit the coverage of our typical afternoon showers and storms. Rain chances fall to around 20% to 30% Tuesday, with only isolated to widely scattered storms expected through the middle and latter part of the week.
Another plume of Saharan dust is also expected to move across Florida around midweek, potentially creating hazier skies.
Despite the lower rain chances, we won’t completely eliminate afternoon storms. Any isolated storms that manage to develop could produce frequent lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.
The heat won’t let up, either. Highs remain in the low to mid-90s through the weekend, with heat index values potentially approaching 108 degrees on some afternoons.
By Sunday, most of Central Florida could stay dry altogether.
Watching the tropics
There are currently three areas being monitored across the Atlantic, but none poses an immediate threat to Florida.
A tropical wave about midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles has a 10% chance of development during the next seven days. Conditions are expected to become less favorable for development as it approaches the Lesser Antilles later this week.
Farther east, an area of low pressure south of the Cabo Verde Islands is expected to interact with another tropical wave moving off Africa. Conditions could become more favorable for development later this week, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves west to west-northwest across the central Atlantic. It currently has a 60% chance of development during the next seven days.
A third area northwest of Bermuda has only a 10% chance of development and is expected to move eastward into cooler waters later this week.
None of these systems is an immediate concern for Central Florida, but we’ll continue to monitor the Atlantic closely as we move deeper into hurricane season.