ORLANDO, Fla. – The tropical Atlantic is beginning to show signs of life as we enter the time of year when activity typically ramps up.
Monday marks exactly one month until Sept. 10, the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. So far this season, the Atlantic has produced two named storms, Arthur and Bertha.
As of 8 a.m, Monday, the National Hurricane Center was monitoring three areas for possible tropical development across the Atlantic basin. None are an immediate concern for Florida.
The area with the greatest chance of development is in the eastern tropical Atlantic, a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. A broad area of low pressure there is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
The system is expected to move slowly westward and eventually merge with a tropical wave currently moving across western Africa. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable by midweek, and a tropical depression could form during the latter half of the week as the system moves west to west-northwest across the central Atlantic.
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The National Hurricane Center gives this area a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours and a 60% chance over the next seven days.
Farther west, another tropical wave is producing a broad area of showers and thunderstorms about halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Some gradual development is possible through midweek as the wave moves quickly westward. However, upper-level winds are expected to become less favorable as it approaches the Lesser Antilles later this week.
Development chances with this system remain low at 10% through both 48 hours and seven days.
A third area is being monitored in the western subtropical Atlantic, several hundred miles northwest of Bermuda. A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms and could see some development over the next couple of days.
That system is moving quickly eastward, well north of Bermuda, and is expected to reach cooler waters later this week. Development chances remain low at 10%.
While none of the three areas poses an immediate concern to Florida, the increase in activity is a reminder that we are entering the heart of hurricane season.
Historically, Atlantic tropical activity increases quickly through August before reaching its climatological peak on Sept. 10. The season continues through Nov. 30, leaving plenty of time for additional storms to develop.