Computer model shows possible tropical depression forming

Wind shear expected to work against system

By Daniel Dahm - Digital Manager, Troy Bridges - Meteorologist

ORLANDO, Fla. - A computer model continues to show an area of storms that could develop into a possible tropical depression and head into the Gulf of Mexico by Memorial Day weekend, although the chances were reduced later Monday morning.

The ECMWF, a European model that was highly accurate last year, has consistently shown that storms currently located south of Cuba will develop into an area of low pressure or a tropical depression.

"This model has some weight because of how trustworthy it was last hurricane season," News 6 meteorologist Troy Bridges said.

But Bridges cautioned that any potential system has some factors working against it.

"If or when it reaches the Gulf in the next few days, wind shear could tear it apart," he said. "There's warm water in the Gulf, but not a lot else to fuel it."

As of Monday, the system has a 20 percent chance of development over the next five days.

The computer model shows any potential system heading toward the coast of Louisiana.

"Whether it forms into a tropical system or not, it will be a rainmaker for the Orlando area," Bridges said. "A deep, southerly flow will pour more wet weather into the region for most of the week before the new system adds even more rain into the mix."

Watch News 6 for updates.

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