ORLANDO, Fla. – Colorado State University issued their June forecast for the ongoing 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Their numbers have changed little in terms of forecasted total storms, hurricanes, and those that could potentially reach major hurricane status.
They’re still expecting 17 named storms to form across the basin. A total of nine hurricanes are expected to form of the total 17 named storms, and four of those hurricanes could achieve major hurricane status which would be winds in excess of 111 mph.
The tropical Atlantic has warmed some since their first forecast issuance on April 3. We have also passed what is labeled the “spring predictability barrier” in terms of judging where our Pacific Ocean water temperatures could be in relation to an El Niño or La Niña.
Right now, Dr. Phil Klotzbach and his team are fairly confident El Niño will not be an issue for the Atlantic hurricane season, which typically results in greater-than-normal wind shear conditions across our ocean. Wind shear acts to tear down thunderstorms and chop down tropical systems as they attempt to form.
Climate models do indicate the likelihood of treading into El Niño territory in the tropical Pacific to be around 10-13% during the peak of the season.
“The tropical Pacific currently is characterized by ENSO neutral conditions, and we anticipate these to persist through the hurricane season,” the CSU team said. ENSO neutral means we swing neither El Niño or La Niña, which means our hurricane season could go either way.
Overall, their thinking hasn’t deviated much from where their initial forecast was built. In fact, areas of the Atlantic Ocean have warmed up from where they were in the first quarter of the calendar year.
Some of these areas specifically are where we tend to watch more than others when determining what a hurricane season could look at down the pike.
One of these areas is coined the “Main Development Region,” or MDR, which you’ll likely hear during some of our tropical updates or hurricane season coverage.
Earlier in the year, the water temperatures were cooler than they’ve been in quite some time. Over the course of April and May, we’ve seen some noticeable warmth building back in particularly where our tropical waves tend to move the most when coming off Africa.
According to CSU, our state of Florida is still sitting around a 92% chance a named storm passes within 50 miles of us.
A large portion of this statistic comes from seasonal averages over the course of several decades. It is heavily based on probabilities, and our spot on the map doesn’t quite help our chances of dodging every tropical feature that may develop out in the Atlantic.
I want to emphasize this is not a percent chance we receive a named storm or a hurricane. But based on historical records, it’s far more frequent Florida sees a tropical cyclone pass in close proximity of the peninsula. A small sliver is rooted in what models forecast our steering currents could look like during the months ahead.
Right now, there’s no prominent signal of anything cooking in the tropics, which is great news. The season could be off to one of its more quiet starts in a little while now.
However, I caution, a slow start to the season has no correlation to what the peak months could show us. Just as we saw with the early activity of 2024, it’s best to not let your guard down and actually take advantage of this slow intro to dial in what’s left in your preparedness plans if you haven’t done so already.