ORLANDO, Fla. – While the Eastern Pacific has been busy, churning out four named storms in less than 10 days, the Atlantic is experiencing a stark contrast.
As we enter the third week of the 2025 hurricane season, there’s still no activity to report.
According to the National Hurricane Center, the tropical Atlantic typically sees its first named storm by June 20, its first hurricane by Aug. 11 and its first major hurricane by Sept. 1. However, current models suggest that this season may lag a few weeks behind that usual timeline.
What does a slow start mean for us?
Absolutely nothing! While we’re not complaining about a quieter start in our part of the tropics, it’s crucial to remember that a slow beginning doesn’t guarantee a season without significant storms.
Active seasons with slower starts:
- In 2024, we saw Alberto make its debut on June 19.
- In 2011, Arlene formed on June 28.
One season that resonates with those of us in Central Florida is 2004. Tropical Storm Alex didn’t get named until Aug. 1. Yet that year, five storms impacted Florida within just six weeks, marking one of the most devastating seasons on record.
Both Colorado State University and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are highlighting this year as one with the potential for increased activity.
When can we expect the tropics to wake up?
Meteorologists closely monitor a phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Think of it as a wave of stormy weather that travels around the globe along the equator, taking about one to two months to complete its journey.
This oscillation is the reason we experience quiet periods followed by bursts of tropical activity. When the stormy phase of the MJO moves over the Atlantic, it fuels tropical development. On the other hand, the quieter phase tends to suppress activity.
Current MJO trends indicate that we might have to wait a few more weeks before conditions ramp up significantly in the Atlantic, likely deep into July.
While a slow start can be a relief, remember that hurricane season runs through Nov. 30. Stay alert and prepared!