ORLANDO, Fla. – We are one month DEEP into the 2025 hurricane season. What started out incredibly quiet has started to tick in the upward direction.
Andrea and Barry, both short-lived tropical storms, formed in the Atlantic basin. Now, we turn our attention to the immediate southeast coast of the U.S. for the potential we see Chantal enter the fray.
Right away, I hope during the early season lull you finished buttoning up everything pertaining to being prepared in your home and getting your loved ones up to speed on what your plan looks like if a big one decides it wants to put you in its path.
Now, I am not anticipating the season to suddenly go off the chain. We don’t have any signs or signals of any immediate threats to worry about, let alone that the entirety of the Atlantic is going to suddenly go ablaze with hurricanes.
But, it is July. This means the traditional peak of the season is getting closer and closer. The chess board that makes up where we watch for storm development has started to arrange its pieces, gearing up for when August arrives.
Let me break down what it is I’m watching, and why you’re reading this article today.
Water temperatures
The first quarter of 2025 was characterized by a sudden drop in Atlantic ocean sea surface temperatures. This was a huge change when compared to the last couple of years. 2023 and 2024 we saw record warmth built up, just about everywhere.
While we haven’t seen water temperatures bounce back by any means, we’ve definitely seen a rearranging of our configuration. This is especially true where it matters most for the hurricane season.
Initially, the Atlantic main development region, a sliver of Atlantic Ocean that extends from the west coast of Africa through to or just beyond the Lesser Antilles island chain, was colder than average.
To the north of a latitude line coined as the “Tropic of Cancer,” we move into the region called the subtropics. This is where we had a lot of our warmth loaded up, and still do to an extent especially closer to the U.S. east coast.
This causes issues with getting tropical waves the lift they need to fire up into your classic tropical storm, or eventually hurricane. Warm versus cold water dictates where your lift will be focused. A warm subtropical Atlantic keeps that all maintained far north of where your tropical waves will be located.
As with everything in the atmosphere, what goes up has to come down. If you have all that focused lifting going on north of your main development region, you received localized “sinking” air in the tropics. That hurts the seasons chances of producing a number of strong named storms.
That has since changed. We’ve seen the Canary current off the west shores of Europe and Africa bring down some good warmth to the tropics. We’ve also seen noticeable cooling in the subtropics.
The ENSO regions of the Pacific
El Niño and La Niña, or a lack thereof. We’re still sitting in neutral conditions across the tropical Pacific ENSO regions. These four regions are where we watch for warmer than average or cooler than average waters that help or hurt our Atlantic Ocean through the same principles as I explained above.
Hot water in the Pacific, cooler water in the Atlantic, you see lift focused in our neighboring ocean off the U.S. west coast. Cooler, or near normal water temperatures, with a warmer than average Atlantic, and you bias our portion of the tropics.
Climate models indicate we will maintain a neutral if not cool neutral appearance in the Pacific, meaning despite the burst of activity we’ve seen in their early hurricane season that will inevitably fade after some more time and the Atlantic will start to crank.
Steering Currents
Finally - steering.
The Atlantic has been enduring large periods of strong high pressure ridging, especially over the subtropics. Our subtropical high has been immense since about mid May extending into June.
We’d been watching to see when this would break down. My working theory was, the moment our high pressure gave way, the Atlantic would finally wake up.
The moment we saw a bit of a collapse or caving in of the westernmost extent of our Atlantic high pressure, Andrea and Barry came together, and our current area of interest is likely to plop off the U.S. coast because the high is now positioned closer to Bermuda.
This makes things interesting as the wheels of evolution continue deeper into summer.
Naturally, since Earth is tilted on its own axis, and we continue around the sun, we’re going to see wind patterns and pressure patterns shift more north because of where our greatest amount of incoming sunlight will be positioned.
If we carry stronger than normal high pressure for the northern Atlantic into peak season, we’ll definitely have to watch closely where our waves travel and even more so the ones that show signs of developing.
Not predicting at all that Florida will see another busy season, but the potential is definitely there.
Long range computer models are already showing signs of an active Africa monsoon, and more aggressive tropical waves headed into the Atlantic MDR (main development region).
The first month of the season has come and gone already. We’re now staring the peak of the season in the face, and once August hits it’s only a matter of time before hurricanes start to blossom across the Atlantic.
Now more than ever, you should have a trusted meteorological source keeping you safe and ahead of the storm as we get closer to the busier time of the year. I would also highly encourage you know what your plan and preparations look like before July closes out.