ORLANDO, Fla. – Tropical Storm Chantal was the last named storm to fully organize in the Atlantic in the month of July. As we prepare to round out the month and turn the calendar to August, things have been relatively quiet despite a few models previously saying otherwise.
What appears like more “model hype” might actually be the real thing here as we wander into the first two weeks of August.
I want to break down all the latest info, and discuss further in the video attached to this article (at the very top of this story). So hang with me!
Where we’re watching
June and July were pretty normal in terms of Atlantic activity. It’s been a little actually since we’ve had a hurricane season more or less behave itself during the first month or two.
Last year, we were off the chain immediately with Category 5 Beryl. The year prior, 2023, we saw early Atlantic development by way of Bret, Cindy and Don, a hurricane that formed high up in latitude.
This year, we’ve seen a few sloppy tropical storms form primarily through non-tropical means. Tropical Storm Barry, albeit having made landfall as a 45 mph tropical storm, went on to up torrential rainfall totals for Central Texas.
Now, we shift gears. It’s time to start watching both closer to home and off the coastline of West Africa.
If you look at a satellite image, the change is almost night and day in comparison to what’s occurred earlier in the season. We now have some fairly organized and rather strong easterly waves (tropical waves) headed westward toward the Main Development Region of the Atlantic.
You probably had a couple of posts flare up on your social media about the one we’re watching head toward the Lesser Antilles of the eastern Caribbean in recent days. This wave in particular was more ... sacrificial, if you will.
While it did show some promising signs of further development, sinking air, dry air and lots of vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic gave this feature a run for its money. As of now, it’s pretty barren and it doesn’t look all that impressive on a satellite image.
But it’s what is coming up behind this one that has my attention.
Why these tropical waves could be different
Conditions are still fairly hostile across our ocean, I want to be very clear.
Higher than normal pressure has reached its grasp down across the tropics and even as far south as the equator. Higher pressure is not supportive of tropical thunderstorms, which help create low pressure and spin.
If you’ve kept up with our updates here at News 6, you’ve probably stumbled across an article talking about the MJO, the Madden-Jullian Oscillation, here and there. It’s coming for another pass, and models suggest it could be a bit more amped up this go around.
Because of this, we’re looking at the potential of a flip from higher pressures to lower pressures in the Atlantic. We’ll also see Saharan air and dust relax a bit into August. This is the point in our summertime when the dust starts to subside anyway.
Lastly, moisture will ramp up and with a little nudge from the MJO, these tropical waves should stand a better chance of surviving their journey from the west coast of Africa further westward.
Now - NOTHING is locked in or for certain just yet. But the background state of the atmosphere makes sense, and we’ll see greater chances of tropical development while the MJO is helping to stir the pot some and help create more favorable conditions.
Steering currents would also suggest these bear monitoring because they won’t quickly be shot out to sea away from major landmasses.
The tropical waves are already fairly healthy, with something called the African Easterly Jet (AEJ for short), helping them stay alive with lots of showers and storms over Africa.
We’re about seven to 10 days away from really seeing what’s what over the Atlantic and where things will be moving. But regardless, this is something I want us to monitor, and I encourage you to track these things together alongside me over the coming days!
Stay tuned for more here at News 6 as we prepare you for whatever the peak of our Atlantic hurricane season tries to sling our way.