ORLANDO, Fla. – Hurricane Erin has done some pretty spectacular things over the course of its life cycle in the Atlantic.
Thankfully, no one has taken a direct hit by this storm, and it still appears incredibly unlikely that will happen as it curves north and away from the U.S.
[VIDEO BELOW: David Nazario tracks the tropics]
The National Hurricane Center has our next feature already at a 50% shot at developing within the next seven days and if models hold any credence, it does appear we will see Fernand joining us before the end of the month.
I would imagine we see an invest designation before the upcoming weekend if all continues as forecast. The next number would be the infamous 99L. The reason I say “infamous” is the last two notable features that earned the characterization of 99L just so happened to be Helene and Milton of last year.
If and when this happens, we’ll have to closely monitor what Erin does as it will pave the way ahead for how the next tropical wave behaves during its travels across the Atlantic basin.
First and foremost, I urge if you have any relatives, friends, coworkers, close family members in the Greater Antilles, they should probably start gearing up once again for potential tropical impacts. Early on in the movement of our wave, it does appear to target the eastern Caribbean islands all over again in the wake of Erin.
Thankfully, we’re not expecting anything in the realm of a Category 5.
Models are then generally split after we approach 70W longitude - just as they were with Hurricane Erin before it developed.
There’s a bit of a large split here as well than forecast with pre-Erin, thanks to all the influence Erin will have on our big picture weather pattern continuing northward till it interacts with our jet stream coming off the U.S.
Erin will still be strong enough to create a bit of a “local” weather pattern closest to the storm itself. The upper level outflow, or the breath coming off Erin, could cause some changes in the steering currents east and south of its position before it gets absorbed.
That’s the key. We’ll need to monitor how fast or slow Erin moves and if it maintains its intensity or begins to weaken a little quicker than it appears it will.
A slower storm almost guarantees our next wave follows in Erin’s wake. Think of a cruise ship headed out to sea. It leaves an enormous path of disturbed water behind it as it moves forward. That’s the wake of the ship moving across the water’s surface.
As you watch the ship gain some distance from you, you’ll see waters rush back in right behind the ship as it moves further and further from shore.
That’s precisely the same principle here. A slower Erin drags our tropical wave north. A faster Erin, high pressure builds in, and it’s game on for those of us in the south and east U.S.
The key takeaway you need to know in the interim is - we still have a major hurricane off our east coast.
While it may seem we’re jumping ship and already moving on to the next system, Erin and our future disturbance work in tandem with one another. What Erin does heavily dictates what happens next for all of us from the Caribbean to Central Florida to the eastern shores of the U.S. altogether.
Stick with us, we’ll bring you all the latest as we get closer in time and hopefully look ahead toward a calm spell end of August into early September before peak hurricane season kicks into gear.