ORLANDO, Fla. – Gabrielle is rapidly intensifying to major hurricane status, managing to achieve winds of 120mph in the center of the storm.
The central pressure has come down to around 957 mbs, according to the latest data, which means Gabrielle has deepened by a near whopping 40 millibars in less than 24 hours. Rapid intensification by every means of the definition is under way.
I anticipate National Hurricane Center will likely increase the peak intensity for our major hurricane to well inside Category 4. We’re still predicting further growth through the day today, especially as Gabrielle continues to take full advantage of the favorable local environment near to the storm.
Now let’s break down why it’s blowing its top the way it is.
Gabrielle has been a survivor among few across the Atlantic basin the last several days, since it was first tagged as Tropical Depression 7 last week.
The moment it was classified as a tropical system, an upper level low running in tandem with the organizing feature yanked it north out of favorable conditions for further strengthening.
Then to make matters worse for the storm, dry air was dumped overtop of it, completely squashing the bulk of any showers or moisture near the center.
For a day or two, Gabrielle was crushed. There was little to no noticeable structure, and the center was displaced in all sorts of different directions. You could almost argue it was no longer tropical at all.
Fast forward to this past weekend, and immediately upon finding more favorable environmental conditions, Gabrielle wasted no time bouncing back in pretty spectacular fashion.
The storm developed thunderstorms and closed off a center, and before we knew it Gabrielle was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane late Sunday afternoon.
Based on the satellite representation this morning, we’re witnessing yet another rapidly intensifying storm out in the Atlantic. Thankfully, like its earlier counterpart Erin, it should stay away from everyone and do its thing where no one can feel the effects.
You can usually determine when a hurricane is preparing to enter the rapid intensification phase based on a few different key details on satellite imagery.
First and foremost, like the motors in your cars, you want an excellent exhaust mechanism. If you didn’t have an exhaust system on your motor vehicle, your engine would fall flat on its face.
The same goes for hurricanes. If you don’t have a way to displace all that built up energy, inertia, and motion going on near the center, the storm collapses almost altogether. That’s why sinking, dry air can vaporize developing tropical systems and level even more organized hurricanes at the snap of a finger.
Gabrielle has a great amount of outflow occurring on all sides of the center, especially on the north and eastern flanks. The thin, feathery clouds shown on satellite reveal just how much its exhaust is cranking as of now.
Then, we look toward the low pressure center itself. With or without an actual eye that we can see, if you start to note what look like rotating balls of thunderstorms close together, that’s a sure sign the eye is getting ready to clear and the storm is deepening at a faster rate.
When meteorologists use the term “deepening,” we mean strengthening. Low pressure systems as they grow in size or put on more “muscle,” if you will, deepen their surface pressure. High pressures do the opposite, they build the surface air pressure.
Observed pressure values started to drop in smaller, gradual increments from Saturday into Sunday. However, we’ve now realized some fairly hefty plummets in the low pressure, now falling about 15-20 millibars with every advisory from the NHC.
As pressure drops, winds will catch up. There is some lag between the two, but given where we are in terms of central pressure it’s only a matter of time before we get closer and closer to category four intensity.
Again, I want to echo the positive news this thing will stay away from any heavily populated areas. Bermuda will see a close pass but when you factor in the counter clockwise turning of the winds around the storm, they’ll remain on the weaker side as Gabrielle moves north and then northeast.
We also have one last component helping the hurricane quickly grow. It’s a phenomena called ventilation.
Let’s look at the local pattern near Gabrielle. You’ll see a trough moving in from the west and northwest, alongside high pressure circulation to its immediate east. The hurricane is present between this pinch zone, in the most optimal position to take advantage of extra lift both of these large features provide.
So while Gabrielle itself is firing on all cylinders, the trough and high next door to the center are giving it a little nudge to optimize how fast it can intensify.
We’re likely to see the second major hurricane of the 2025 season very soon before it gets too far to the north to sustain the structure that it’s worked hard to achieve.