It’s 11/11 and I’m wishing hurricane season would end already. Meteorologist Jonathan Kegges back with you. Although I’m not sure the date being 11/11 works the same as the clock reading 11:11 to make a wish.
In any event, it appears we will have one final storm to track before we can *hopefully* close the books on an extremely busy and impactful hurricane season.
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A disturbance already bringing rain to Haiti and the Dominican Republic is being monitored for tropical development once it moves into the western Caribbean.
Virtually all model guidance has been showing this entity develop for the better part of a week now. Ensembles are the thing to look at at this stage of the game. Different conditions are manually put into the ensemble to account for uncertainty in the data. When these individual solutions converge, we get higher confidence in something coming into fruition.
The European ensembles below are very bullish in showing at least a tropical depression developing over the weekend. The brighter the orange, the higher the confidence. The small red numbers represent the forecast pressure of the storm from the individual ensemble member.
After the the weekend things become more uncertain as there will be large dips in the jetstream getting involved. This will act to try and lift the system north out of the Caribbean. How fast and where exactly this happens will depend on where those dips are early next work week.
Those in the Greater Antilles to Central America and Florida should keep this in the back of their mind as we track this over the next ten days give or take.
We’ll catch you on the livestream tonight at 8 p.m. eastern for an interactive weather live chat! Come with questions! It blows my mind that we could be talking about a tropical system leading up to Thanksgiving week, but here we are.
See you then!
Jonathan
There is a lot of noise out there when it comes to the weather. A lot of hype, a lot of clickbait etc. You have my word that you will never see any of those scare tactics from me and News 6. Seeing this myself makes my blood boil.
We’re going to talk about a lot of stuff (hopefully while everything remains out at sea), but we will do so with sound science and meteorology.
It is my hope to have a conversation about the weather this season and to my pass along everything I know so that you know what to look out for.
You can expect an e-mail from me every Monday (and as needed) during hurricane season. If it’s quiet, we’re going to talk about it. If there’s something going on out there, we’re definitely going to be talking about it. We also have a live tropics show that airs on our YouTube channel every Monday at 8p.m. and News 6+
Ways to stay connected this hurricane season
News 6+
If you live outside of Central Florida or don’t have cable, first of all thank you for finding the Tropics Watch newsletter!
Weather Wise
If you crave weather content, I have a show that airs Monday through Friday at 7 a.m. On News 6+ We get in-depth and hyper-local with the weather.
There is also a tropical update every morning at about 8:06 so you can see if anything is brewing.
Pinpoint Hurricane App
Even if you are outside of Central Florida download this app! This is the best hurricane app on the market and its FREE. As soon as the National Hurricane Center names something, you’re going to know about. It’s a great way to follow the season if you like doing that. Search WKMG in your app store and make sure you find the hurricane one.
YouTube
If you live in Central Florida subscribe to the WKMG/Clickorlando page.
If you love the weather whether you’re in Central Florida or not, subscribe to JustWeather!
Clickorlando.com/hurricane is also a great resource no matter where you live.
Alright. I have rambled on enough. Just wanted to make you aware of where you can find trustworthy and in-depth weather content this season.
One last thing. This is a two-way street. I/we are here for you. Any ideas? Like or hate something? Have any questions? Let me know. Shoot me an e-mail at jkegges@wkmg.com. Find me on facebook or twitter.
We’re in this together. We have families here too. You’re going to get the same info we give to them. Thank you for your trust. We don’t take that responsibility lightly.
Ok now I’m done.
Talk to you soon!
-Jonathan