Trends emerging in Orange County’s early voting numbers

It’s still too early to tell which way Florida will lean

With six days left until Election Day, hundreds of thousands of votes have already been cast in Orange County.
With six days left until Election Day, hundreds of thousands of votes have already been cast in Orange County.

ORANGE COUNTY, Fla. – With six days left until Election Day, hundreds of thousands of votes have already been cast in Orange County.

But what do the numbers show and are there any trends to note?

“It’s traditional for Democrats to outnumber Republicans in mail-in voting, it’s traditional for Republicans to outnumber Democrats in early voting and on Election Day,” University of Central Florida historian Jim Clark said.

And so far in Orange County, the vote-by-mail numbers show just that.

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As of Wednesday afternoon, more than 120,000 Democrats have voted by mail, compared to the more than 52,000 Republicans.

When you look at early voting compared to vote-by-mail, the gap between Democrats and Republicans shrinks.

The numbers show more than 79,000 Democrats have early voted, compared to over 54,000 Republicans.

But it’s not until you take a closer look at the early voting numbers, from day to day, that a trend is established.

For example, when early voting started on Oct. 19, if you look at the Orange County Supervisor of Elections Office, which is one of the county’s busiest early voting locations, Democrats had 969 voters, compared to 352 Republicans.

By Sunday, Democrats dropped to 518 and Republicans were at 266.

For the most part, the number of Democrats that have come out to early vote has declined each day, whereas the number of Republicans who are early voting has held steady throughout.

“You read into that, the Democrats tend to vote on weekends, Republicans tend to vote on weekdays,” Clark said.

Clark said, despite any voter trends, or what the numbers show now, it’s still too early to tell which way the election is leaning in Florida.

“It is way too early, we looked at these numbers four years ago and decided that Hillary Clinton was going to carry Florida; she didn’t, she lost Florida and she lost the presidency,” Clark said.

Clark also said that Republicans like to vote closer to the election and on Election Day.


About the Author:

Lauren Cervantes was born and raised in the Midwest but calls Florida her second home. She joined News 6 in August 2019 as a reporter.